Tuesday, March 30, 2004
Few industries have enjoyed as much success as the home building and construction industries. As President Bush pointed out recently, home ownership is as at an all-time high and I'm sure there are developments springing up in places all over your town as well. However, the good times have hit a speed bump attributed to substantially higher material costs which may translate into layoffs, or worse.
"Steel, which has jumped 40 to 60 percent in recent months — or more, depending on the product — is having the most dramatic effect. While much of the attention regarding steel price increases has centered on manufacturing, construction consumes 41.5 percent of steel produced or used in the USA, with factories second at 35.2 percent."
Rising building costs can only result in a rising cost for new construction, both residential and commercial, and that has a tendency to slow down eager buyers. As everyone knows, fewer buyers equals fewer workers. Not to downplay the layoffs, but the rising building costs are actually putting some businesses under.
"There have been reports of states and localities delaying construction projects, as well as some firms imposing layoffs — or even filing for bankruptcy — because they were unable to absorb steel costs."
One could say that it better a company lay off than go under. At that point, fewer opportunities exist as wages begin to stagnate.
Let us not also forget the record high gas prices that are not only strapping the unemployed, but it again raises the costs of doing business for more than just the transportation industry. Any business that depends on having goods and materials delivered can expect a healthy increase in prices as well.
The unemployed get hit in three ways. First, the unemployed pay the same rate for gas as everyone else; next, the businesses facing higher transportation and delivery costs are less likely to hire; and finally, businesses begin to have to raise their prices on consumers to cover the costs raising the amount of money is costs the unemployed to put food on the table.
Sadly, the alternative to finding the low prices limits the unemployed to shopping at Wal-Mart, a likely source of some people's unemployment.
"Steel, which has jumped 40 to 60 percent in recent months — or more, depending on the product — is having the most dramatic effect. While much of the attention regarding steel price increases has centered on manufacturing, construction consumes 41.5 percent of steel produced or used in the USA, with factories second at 35.2 percent."
Rising building costs can only result in a rising cost for new construction, both residential and commercial, and that has a tendency to slow down eager buyers. As everyone knows, fewer buyers equals fewer workers. Not to downplay the layoffs, but the rising building costs are actually putting some businesses under.
"There have been reports of states and localities delaying construction projects, as well as some firms imposing layoffs — or even filing for bankruptcy — because they were unable to absorb steel costs."
One could say that it better a company lay off than go under. At that point, fewer opportunities exist as wages begin to stagnate.
Let us not also forget the record high gas prices that are not only strapping the unemployed, but it again raises the costs of doing business for more than just the transportation industry. Any business that depends on having goods and materials delivered can expect a healthy increase in prices as well.
The unemployed get hit in three ways. First, the unemployed pay the same rate for gas as everyone else; next, the businesses facing higher transportation and delivery costs are less likely to hire; and finally, businesses begin to have to raise their prices on consumers to cover the costs raising the amount of money is costs the unemployed to put food on the table.
Sadly, the alternative to finding the low prices limits the unemployed to shopping at Wal-Mart, a likely source of some people's unemployment.
Monday, March 29, 2004
Hot headlines from the weekend:
Manufacturers say they'll add jobs Bucking the national trend of the last two decades, the manufacturing sector is expecting to hire as many as 250,000 jobs this year alone. The National Association of Manufacturers says 55 percent of companies surveyed expect to increase payroll while only 16 percent expect to reduce employment. (Click here to read the press release.) I find 250,000 to be a stretch based on the rising costs of goods and services, fuel and employee benefits, but even half of that would still be a healthy change for manufacturing.
What we save in dollars, we lose in jobs The headline just about says it all. Just like signing up for the "No Call List" costs thousands of people their jobs, quick trips to Wal-Mart and Sam's Club for gas and groceries are also drying up revenues for small businesses large-scale industries. One of the problems cited in this story is that the margin of quality in a product between high end and low price is continually shrinking. Take those fancy plasma televisions, do you know there are plenty of non-plasma televisions that create almost the same quality of picture without the three to five thousand dollar price tag. Even Daddy Warbucks wouldn't drop five Gs for that little of difference. Price is one area where businesses and consumers share the same mindset ... the lower the better and worry about the circumstances later.
Report says 1.1 million will deplete state unemployment benefits Local governments can't win these days. The state unemployment fund can only carry so many people for so long. When those benefits are exhausted, the unemployed could then turn to federal unemployment assistance. Well, that was before Christmas of last year when Congress decided to not renew federal unemployment and Bush backed them up on it. Now, for the states, what do you suppose happens to people who no longer have any income? Well, many are left making hospital visits they can't pay for, on welfare, and seeking whatever other type of state and federal assistance they can find. Crime rates and homelessness also go up raising your public safety costs. We'll just leave out the impact this has on charities. Meanwhile, the federal government wants to lower your taxes, you know, the taxes you would pay if you only had a job.
Baltimore isn't working because its people don't For those of you who need a more vivid example of what I'm talking about in the previous story, cash in your chips and head off to Baltimore, the home of crab cakes, Oriole baseball and where half of the adult population is not working.
America's disappearing poor When you are no longer eligible to accept state or federal unemployment, you are not only not counted among the 5.6 percent of unemployed in the U.S., (a figure so bogus, it is a joke to call it "official") but you're simply not counted. There's no way to track you and therefore you simply don't matter to lawmakers or the media, you don't make great copy. People need hard numbers to fight about, not educated guesses.
You could wait ten years for a Census worker to come to your door, but I don't know if the Census Bureau would actually consider the cardboard flap to your shanty an "official" door.
Manufacturers say they'll add jobs Bucking the national trend of the last two decades, the manufacturing sector is expecting to hire as many as 250,000 jobs this year alone. The National Association of Manufacturers says 55 percent of companies surveyed expect to increase payroll while only 16 percent expect to reduce employment. (Click here to read the press release.) I find 250,000 to be a stretch based on the rising costs of goods and services, fuel and employee benefits, but even half of that would still be a healthy change for manufacturing.
What we save in dollars, we lose in jobs The headline just about says it all. Just like signing up for the "No Call List" costs thousands of people their jobs, quick trips to Wal-Mart and Sam's Club for gas and groceries are also drying up revenues for small businesses large-scale industries. One of the problems cited in this story is that the margin of quality in a product between high end and low price is continually shrinking. Take those fancy plasma televisions, do you know there are plenty of non-plasma televisions that create almost the same quality of picture without the three to five thousand dollar price tag. Even Daddy Warbucks wouldn't drop five Gs for that little of difference. Price is one area where businesses and consumers share the same mindset ... the lower the better and worry about the circumstances later.
Report says 1.1 million will deplete state unemployment benefits Local governments can't win these days. The state unemployment fund can only carry so many people for so long. When those benefits are exhausted, the unemployed could then turn to federal unemployment assistance. Well, that was before Christmas of last year when Congress decided to not renew federal unemployment and Bush backed them up on it. Now, for the states, what do you suppose happens to people who no longer have any income? Well, many are left making hospital visits they can't pay for, on welfare, and seeking whatever other type of state and federal assistance they can find. Crime rates and homelessness also go up raising your public safety costs. We'll just leave out the impact this has on charities. Meanwhile, the federal government wants to lower your taxes, you know, the taxes you would pay if you only had a job.
Baltimore isn't working because its people don't For those of you who need a more vivid example of what I'm talking about in the previous story, cash in your chips and head off to Baltimore, the home of crab cakes, Oriole baseball and where half of the adult population is not working.
America's disappearing poor When you are no longer eligible to accept state or federal unemployment, you are not only not counted among the 5.6 percent of unemployed in the U.S., (a figure so bogus, it is a joke to call it "official") but you're simply not counted. There's no way to track you and therefore you simply don't matter to lawmakers or the media, you don't make great copy. People need hard numbers to fight about, not educated guesses.
You could wait ten years for a Census worker to come to your door, but I don't know if the Census Bureau would actually consider the cardboard flap to your shanty an "official" door.
Although it happened later than I expected, the first major casualty of the "Do Not Call" list is MCI who is in the process of laying off 4,000 employees from various call center locations throughout the country.
While I'm sure there have been other call centers that have closed because of the list, this is the first one I've noticed and it hits thousands of workers across the country. What I have found so interesting is for all the outrage that exists over the outsourcing issue, no one seems to care about the thousands of people who are losing their call center jobs due to legislation in the U.S. Remember, when you cheered the "No Call List," you were sealed the fate of thousands of U.S. workers.
How ironic when an executive for a Fortune 500 company recently told me that its revenue from telemarketing has really improved since the start of the "No Call List."
Below is the press release from MCI on the layoffs:
"Background: MCI today announced that it is reducing its workforce by approximately 4,000 employees as part of its ongoing cost reduction program. The majority of this reduction comes from closing three consumer call centers and reducing staffing in three others, in large part due to the effects of "Do Not Call" telemarketing laws. MCI announced earlier this year that it expects to reduce costs by 15 to 20 percent.
"The centers being closed are located in Denver; CO; Phoenix, AZ; and Niles, OH. Staffing is being reduced at MCI facilities in Alpharetta, GA; Colorado Springs, CO; and Springfield, MO.
"The following statement can be attributed to MCI:
"As a result of the impact of federal and state 'Do Not Call' laws, as well as ongoing telecom market trends, we need to take this action in order to improve our overall cost structure. These actions will in no way impact our ability to serve our customers."
While I'm sure there have been other call centers that have closed because of the list, this is the first one I've noticed and it hits thousands of workers across the country. What I have found so interesting is for all the outrage that exists over the outsourcing issue, no one seems to care about the thousands of people who are losing their call center jobs due to legislation in the U.S. Remember, when you cheered the "No Call List," you were sealed the fate of thousands of U.S. workers.
How ironic when an executive for a Fortune 500 company recently told me that its revenue from telemarketing has really improved since the start of the "No Call List."
Below is the press release from MCI on the layoffs:
"Background: MCI today announced that it is reducing its workforce by approximately 4,000 employees as part of its ongoing cost reduction program. The majority of this reduction comes from closing three consumer call centers and reducing staffing in three others, in large part due to the effects of "Do Not Call" telemarketing laws. MCI announced earlier this year that it expects to reduce costs by 15 to 20 percent.
"The centers being closed are located in Denver; CO; Phoenix, AZ; and Niles, OH. Staffing is being reduced at MCI facilities in Alpharetta, GA; Colorado Springs, CO; and Springfield, MO.
"The following statement can be attributed to MCI:
"As a result of the impact of federal and state 'Do Not Call' laws, as well as ongoing telecom market trends, we need to take this action in order to improve our overall cost structure. These actions will in no way impact our ability to serve our customers."
Friday, March 26, 2004
As promised, below is the portion of John Kerry's speech today announcing his jobs plan for America. Earlier today, I posted the relevant portions of President Bush's jobs speech that he delivered Thursday in New Hampshire. Stay informed and read both posts as there is quite a bit of depth to the topic of job creation in the U.S.
As with Bush, I have cut out portions of Kerry's speech that do not directly address the issue of jobs. The Kerry post is longer than Bush's, but that's how it was written, so don't shoot the messenger with accusations of favoritism to either candidate. The plans speak for themselves, you decide which offers the best solution to our unemployment situation.
As with the Bush speech, I am providing a link to the Kerry "jobs" speech in its entirety.
(The following content from John Kerry is preceded by Kerry making his case for running for president and some criticism of the president)
"Today, I’m announcing a new economic plan for America that will put jobs first. We will renew American competitiveness, make tough budget choices, and invest in our future. My pledge – and my plan – is for 10 million new jobs in the next four years.
"This is a realistic plan. I won’t tell you that we can bring back every lost industry or protect every current job. But my plan will enable our economy to create jobs and keep more good jobs here in America. It offers a long-term strategy to win our economic future. We won’t do it through government make-work, but by making our economy work so that businesses put Americans back to work.
"I will set out the details of this economic plan in the weeks ahead. I’ll focus on raising American competitiveness:
Spurring the growth of new industries like the broadband technology that will dominate the future.
Lowering health care costs that put American businesses at a competitive and price disadvantage.
Making sure our children have the education and our workers have the training and skills they need.
And lowering energy costs which burden businesses and consumers and creating half a million new jobs in renewable fuels to make America energy independent of Mideast oil in ten years.
"I will outline specific steps to restore economic confidence and fiscal discipline by cutting the budget deficit in half in four years – making the federal government smaller but smarter, more effective and less expensive.
"So I’m not running just to oppose present failures, but to propose new policies. This Spring, in a series of speeches, I will tell the American people, in specific terms, how we can enable our economy to create those 10 million new jobs. Today, I begin with a proposal for major tax reforms to help our workers compete in the global marketplace.
"Our Jobs First economic plan will end laws that encourage companies to export jobs while plowing back every dollar we save into new incentives to help companies create and keep jobs in America.
"We now have a tax code that does more to reward companies for moving overseas than it does to reward them for creating jobs here in America. So if I am elected President, I will fight for the most sweeping international tax law reform in forty years – a plan to replace tax incentives to take jobs offshore with new incentives for job creation on our own shores.
"Let me explain.
"Today in America if a company is trying to choose between locating a factory in Michigan or Malaysia, our tax code has a feature called “deferral” that provides major tax savings if they locate abroad. So companies are driven to take advantage of legal tax incentives that have been on the books for too long and do not serve the economic interests of our nation.
"A company with $10 million in profits in Michigan will pay taxes at the standard corporate tax rate; but if that company moves to Malaysia and makes that same $10 million in profits, they can avoid paying US taxes – perhaps forever – as long as they keep the money overseas. They have a special tax incentive to send jobs overseas that may have little or nothing to do with normal market or economic forces.
"The reform I’m proposing today is based on a simple principle: Money made by American businesses overseas should be taxed at the same rate as money made by businesses here at home. This won’t affect American companies that locate production or serves in a foreign country to sell to consumers in that country. But it will apply to those who use those foreign locations to export products back to the United States or to other nations. If a company is torn between creating jobs here or overseas, we now have a tax code that tells you to go overseas. That’s crazy. And if I am President, it will end.
"The fact is that, taken together, the companies take advantage of the current tax laws don’t pay a dollar in taxes. We actually end up paying them $8 billion a year to send their money and ship our jobs overseas. My proposal offers American companies a reasonable transition to adapt to this sweeping change. I don't want to punish anyone. But I believe it is long past time that we put our jobs first and put tax benefits that discourage jobs in America out of business.
"And I also propose to use the money we save from ending this tax giveaway for outsourcing to finance smart tax cuts that will create jobs here in America.
"Last August, I proposed a new jobs credit that would give manufacturers a break on the payroll taxes for every new worker they hire. I believe we should expand it to industries outside manufacturing where jobs are endangered by outsourcing – so that we help create more jobs, whether it comes to cars or computer software or call centers.
"Second, the savings from ending the tax incentives for outsourcing can also expand jobs tax credit to cover all small businesses and their employees. For most small business owners, that means that if they create jobs, they will pay lower taxes in a Kerry Administration than they do under President Bush.
"Third, savings can finance a 25 percent tax credit for small businesses when they provide health care for their workers. The rise in health care costs under this Administration has hit everyone hard, but no one harder than small business owners and their employees. As the Chair of the Small Business committee in the Senate, I saw again and again how small businesses can be the engine of job creation – and those jobs are the ones most likely to be created here and to stay here.
"Fourth, if we are willing to close loopholes and abuses in our tax system, then we can afford to lower taxes in the right way to spur growth and jobs. With the savings I proposed today, we can and should reduce the corporate tax rates by 5 percent – to improve competitiveness and to narrow the difference between corporate tax rates here and overseas. Some may be surprised to hear a Democrat calling for lower corporate tax rates. The fact is, I don’t care about the old debates. I care about getting the job done and about creating jobs in America.
"Finally, I won’t let America wage the fight for our economic future with one hand tied behind our back. No one should misunderstand me: I am not protectionist – but I am a competitor. American workers are the most competitive in the world – and they deserve a government that’s as competitive as they are. We will demand our trading partners play by the rules they’ve agreed to and show them that America means business when it comes to enforcing our trade agreements. The Bush Administration has refused to enforce our trade agreements. That not only costs jobs; over time, it threatens to erode support for open markets and a growing global economy. And it deprives us of one of the most important tools we have to safeguard our own workers and our environment – and to raise standards internationally.
"As President, I’ll hold countries like China accountable when they manipulate their currency to inflate their exports and depress ours. Four years ago, in the Senate, we fought for and won a provision to prevent Chinese companies from flooding the American market and destroying American jobs. Three times a bipartisan, independent commission recommended to President Bush that he use this power to aid American workers. And three times, this President has said “no.” Just a few months ago, the Administration said they opposed efforts to increase the funds for enforcing trade agreements with China. They said the money just was “unnecessary.” I’ll tell you what is necessary – a President who understands that open trade is essential for our prosperity, but unfair trade practices can undermine it.
"It is time to insist on and enforce real worker and environmental provisions in the core of every trade agreement so that we don’t exploit workers in other countries or sell them out here at home. And it’s time to break the deadlock in Congress and pass real tax breaks for our manufacturing industries.
"For the vast majority of companies in America – 99 percent – our Jobs First plan will cut their taxes and help them create new jobs. Some companies – that benefit from tax loopholes – will fiercely defend the status quo. I know how tough their lobbying will be. But I believe that’s why we have elections in America – so that the people can set us on a new course. And I don’t believe the course they want is to subsidize the loss of their own jobs. I have fought for my country for 35 years – and I am ready for this fight. With tax reform and tax cuts, with real fiscal responsibility, with new investments in the industries of the future, we can and will create 10 million new jobs for America – and lead our economy in a new direction. Together, let’s give America back its prosperity and its future."
As with Bush, I have cut out portions of Kerry's speech that do not directly address the issue of jobs. The Kerry post is longer than Bush's, but that's how it was written, so don't shoot the messenger with accusations of favoritism to either candidate. The plans speak for themselves, you decide which offers the best solution to our unemployment situation.
As with the Bush speech, I am providing a link to the Kerry "jobs" speech in its entirety.
(The following content from John Kerry is preceded by Kerry making his case for running for president and some criticism of the president)
"Today, I’m announcing a new economic plan for America that will put jobs first. We will renew American competitiveness, make tough budget choices, and invest in our future. My pledge – and my plan – is for 10 million new jobs in the next four years.
"This is a realistic plan. I won’t tell you that we can bring back every lost industry or protect every current job. But my plan will enable our economy to create jobs and keep more good jobs here in America. It offers a long-term strategy to win our economic future. We won’t do it through government make-work, but by making our economy work so that businesses put Americans back to work.
"I will set out the details of this economic plan in the weeks ahead. I’ll focus on raising American competitiveness:
"I will outline specific steps to restore economic confidence and fiscal discipline by cutting the budget deficit in half in four years – making the federal government smaller but smarter, more effective and less expensive.
"So I’m not running just to oppose present failures, but to propose new policies. This Spring, in a series of speeches, I will tell the American people, in specific terms, how we can enable our economy to create those 10 million new jobs. Today, I begin with a proposal for major tax reforms to help our workers compete in the global marketplace.
"Our Jobs First economic plan will end laws that encourage companies to export jobs while plowing back every dollar we save into new incentives to help companies create and keep jobs in America.
"We now have a tax code that does more to reward companies for moving overseas than it does to reward them for creating jobs here in America. So if I am elected President, I will fight for the most sweeping international tax law reform in forty years – a plan to replace tax incentives to take jobs offshore with new incentives for job creation on our own shores.
"Let me explain.
"Today in America if a company is trying to choose between locating a factory in Michigan or Malaysia, our tax code has a feature called “deferral” that provides major tax savings if they locate abroad. So companies are driven to take advantage of legal tax incentives that have been on the books for too long and do not serve the economic interests of our nation.
"A company with $10 million in profits in Michigan will pay taxes at the standard corporate tax rate; but if that company moves to Malaysia and makes that same $10 million in profits, they can avoid paying US taxes – perhaps forever – as long as they keep the money overseas. They have a special tax incentive to send jobs overseas that may have little or nothing to do with normal market or economic forces.
"The reform I’m proposing today is based on a simple principle: Money made by American businesses overseas should be taxed at the same rate as money made by businesses here at home. This won’t affect American companies that locate production or serves in a foreign country to sell to consumers in that country. But it will apply to those who use those foreign locations to export products back to the United States or to other nations. If a company is torn between creating jobs here or overseas, we now have a tax code that tells you to go overseas. That’s crazy. And if I am President, it will end.
"The fact is that, taken together, the companies take advantage of the current tax laws don’t pay a dollar in taxes. We actually end up paying them $8 billion a year to send their money and ship our jobs overseas. My proposal offers American companies a reasonable transition to adapt to this sweeping change. I don't want to punish anyone. But I believe it is long past time that we put our jobs first and put tax benefits that discourage jobs in America out of business.
"And I also propose to use the money we save from ending this tax giveaway for outsourcing to finance smart tax cuts that will create jobs here in America.
"Last August, I proposed a new jobs credit that would give manufacturers a break on the payroll taxes for every new worker they hire. I believe we should expand it to industries outside manufacturing where jobs are endangered by outsourcing – so that we help create more jobs, whether it comes to cars or computer software or call centers.
"Second, the savings from ending the tax incentives for outsourcing can also expand jobs tax credit to cover all small businesses and their employees. For most small business owners, that means that if they create jobs, they will pay lower taxes in a Kerry Administration than they do under President Bush.
"Third, savings can finance a 25 percent tax credit for small businesses when they provide health care for their workers. The rise in health care costs under this Administration has hit everyone hard, but no one harder than small business owners and their employees. As the Chair of the Small Business committee in the Senate, I saw again and again how small businesses can be the engine of job creation – and those jobs are the ones most likely to be created here and to stay here.
"Fourth, if we are willing to close loopholes and abuses in our tax system, then we can afford to lower taxes in the right way to spur growth and jobs. With the savings I proposed today, we can and should reduce the corporate tax rates by 5 percent – to improve competitiveness and to narrow the difference between corporate tax rates here and overseas. Some may be surprised to hear a Democrat calling for lower corporate tax rates. The fact is, I don’t care about the old debates. I care about getting the job done and about creating jobs in America.
"Finally, I won’t let America wage the fight for our economic future with one hand tied behind our back. No one should misunderstand me: I am not protectionist – but I am a competitor. American workers are the most competitive in the world – and they deserve a government that’s as competitive as they are. We will demand our trading partners play by the rules they’ve agreed to and show them that America means business when it comes to enforcing our trade agreements. The Bush Administration has refused to enforce our trade agreements. That not only costs jobs; over time, it threatens to erode support for open markets and a growing global economy. And it deprives us of one of the most important tools we have to safeguard our own workers and our environment – and to raise standards internationally.
"As President, I’ll hold countries like China accountable when they manipulate their currency to inflate their exports and depress ours. Four years ago, in the Senate, we fought for and won a provision to prevent Chinese companies from flooding the American market and destroying American jobs. Three times a bipartisan, independent commission recommended to President Bush that he use this power to aid American workers. And three times, this President has said “no.” Just a few months ago, the Administration said they opposed efforts to increase the funds for enforcing trade agreements with China. They said the money just was “unnecessary.” I’ll tell you what is necessary – a President who understands that open trade is essential for our prosperity, but unfair trade practices can undermine it.
"It is time to insist on and enforce real worker and environmental provisions in the core of every trade agreement so that we don’t exploit workers in other countries or sell them out here at home. And it’s time to break the deadlock in Congress and pass real tax breaks for our manufacturing industries.
"For the vast majority of companies in America – 99 percent – our Jobs First plan will cut their taxes and help them create new jobs. Some companies – that benefit from tax loopholes – will fiercely defend the status quo. I know how tough their lobbying will be. But I believe that’s why we have elections in America – so that the people can set us on a new course. And I don’t believe the course they want is to subsidize the loss of their own jobs. I have fought for my country for 35 years – and I am ready for this fight. With tax reform and tax cuts, with real fiscal responsibility, with new investments in the industries of the future, we can and will create 10 million new jobs for America – and lead our economy in a new direction. Together, let’s give America back its prosperity and its future."
One of the risks of a blog is how quickly things can change to make your last entry seem so far out of touch. Below you can read as I go on and on about how President Bush, and most notably John Kerry, had taken the issues of unemployment and job creation out of the political spotlight.
Sure enough, Thursday in New Hampshire, the president got out in front of the issue jobs before Kerry could launch his own jobs plan today (Friday) and before I could supplant the blog with updated unemployment and job content.
Score one for the president!
One couldn't really fault Bush for avoiding the issue as the jobless recovery is a sore subject for voters and Bush hasn't consistently offered up solutions that work. But it's Kerry should be all over this issue. Like a boxer who can't protect himself from a good stiff jab, Kerry should be sticking this issue in Bush's face on a repeated, daily basis. However, Bush continues to be the one to set the agenda of this campaign with Kerry playing catch up.
There have been several stories out on the president's "job" speech, but I thought it would be more useful to provide the commentary verbatim. It should be noted that stories referred to the speech yesterday as on jobs, but there were plenty of other topics covered such as terrorism, Iraq, taxes and education. Feel free to read the speech in its entirety, I have edited the speech down the areas related the topic of jobs.
(The following content from the president's is preceded by talk about terrorism, Iraq and taxes)
"So we did some good things with the tax cut. Let me tell you what else we did that relates to small business. Most of the new jobs in America are created by small business owners. Seventy percent of small businesses -- or new jobs are created by small businesses. And so most small businesses are sub-chapter S corporations, or sole proprietorships. Those are legal words for meaning they pay tax at the individual income tax rates. So when you cut the taxes on the individuals, you're really cutting taxes on small businesses around America. And if you're interested in job growth, it makes sense to allow small businesses to have more of their own capital so they can expand and grow and hire more people.
"We also provided incentives in the tax code to allow small businesses to deduct up to $100,000, as opposed to $25,000. We had bonus depreciation plans available for investment. So we've made a difference and the results are good. They really are good, when you think about it. And the unemployment rate here in this state is 4.1 percent. That's good, real good. (Applause) The inflation is low, interest rates are low. Home ownership is at the highest rate ever. That's positive for society. We want people owning things. We want people owning their own business; we want people owning their own home.
"By the way, minority home ownership rates are extraordinarily high in America, and that is really important, too, for our country. (Applause)
"Manufacturing is increasing and we've had job growth. Now, there's more to do, and we're not going to be satisfied until people who want to work can find a job. And so what are the things we can do? Well, one, we need an energy plan. It's hard to run a business, it's hard to be a manufacturer if you're worried about the reliability of energy. Ask somebody what it's like to run a business that requires energy and your energy bills spike up. Or what was it like if you're worried about getting electricity at all, because the grid is antiquated. It wasn't all that long ago, like last summer, that much of the East Coast was affected because the grid is old.
"We need an energy bill that encourages conservation, alternative sources of energy, a bill that modernizes the electricity system, and a bill that makes us less dependent on foreign sources of energy. (Applause) In order to make sure jobs stay here at home, in order to make sure people can find work, we need to be competitive. That's what we need to be thinking about -- how to make sure we can do a better job of encouraging the entrepreneurial spirit to be strong so people create jobs in America. One way is good energy policy.
"We need tort reform. If you're a business owner -- (Applause) You talk to any business owner and in most places, they're worried about junk lawsuits that run up the cost of doing business. When they spend more time fighting off a junk lawsuit, it means there's less time hiring somebody.
"We need to worry about the cost of medicine. Listen, health care costs are going up. You ask any business owner what it's like to run a small business and they'll tell you, “One of my big fears is that I can't provide for my employees," they'll tell you, because the cost of health care is going up. There's a debate in Washington. There's a philosophical debate over who you want running the health care. There's some up there, good people, good, honest, decent Americans who say, we want the federal government making all the health care decisions. I'm on the other side of that. I think we want consumers to be making -- (Applause)
"There's some practical ways to do that. One, small businesses ought to be allowed to pool risk across jurisdictional lines so they can get the same purchasing power that big businesses have. Those are called association health care plans. Another interesting option for small businesses and employees is called health savings accounts; let's you put money in your health saving account tax-free, earn money tax-free, take money out tax-free. And you combine that with a major medical insurance policy, you've got yourself affordable health care. And it's good for small businesses. These are exciting options that are now developing in the marketplace, where the consumer has got more choice over the decision-making as opposed to government.
"Finally, in order to make sure that the health care costs are reasonable, we need medical liability reform. I want to praise the Governor and the Speaker and the Senator for working on medical liability reform here in New Hampshire. We need national medical liability reform, too." (Applause)
(Bush moves on to speaking about a few more tax cuts, then goes to the issue of trade which directly impacts jobs in the U.S.)
"Presidents before me, both Republican and Democrat, had made the decision to make our markets relatively open, compared to other countries, because it's good for U.S. consumers. You see, when consumers have got more choices, and there's more competition, it gives you -- it helps satisfy your demand at reasonable price.
"And so the fundamental question is, do we keep our market open, or do we close it. My attitude is, we keep it open, but make sure others open theirs, too. See? And make sure the playing field is level. I've got great confidence in New Hampshire's workers. I've got great confidence in --(Applause) -- I've got great confidence in New Hampshire's entrepreneurs. I've got great confidence in products that say, "Made in the USA." (Applause) And so do a lot of people who live in other lands. So let's sell. Let's have a -- I'm going to continue what I've been doing, and say, you reduce your barriers. See? Ours are down, just treat us the same. One way to make sure jobs don't go overseas, and one sure way to make sure we're vibrant here at home is to insist that other people lower their barriers so we can compete. That's all we ask. Just give us a chance. America's -- Americans can rise to the challenge, trust me." (Applause)
Later, I'll post Kerry's jobs plan revealed during a speech today (Friday) in Detroit.
Sure enough, Thursday in New Hampshire, the president got out in front of the issue jobs before Kerry could launch his own jobs plan today (Friday) and before I could supplant the blog with updated unemployment and job content.
Score one for the president!
One couldn't really fault Bush for avoiding the issue as the jobless recovery is a sore subject for voters and Bush hasn't consistently offered up solutions that work. But it's Kerry should be all over this issue. Like a boxer who can't protect himself from a good stiff jab, Kerry should be sticking this issue in Bush's face on a repeated, daily basis. However, Bush continues to be the one to set the agenda of this campaign with Kerry playing catch up.
There have been several stories out on the president's "job" speech, but I thought it would be more useful to provide the commentary verbatim. It should be noted that stories referred to the speech yesterday as on jobs, but there were plenty of other topics covered such as terrorism, Iraq, taxes and education. Feel free to read the speech in its entirety, I have edited the speech down the areas related the topic of jobs.
(The following content from the president's is preceded by talk about terrorism, Iraq and taxes)
"So we did some good things with the tax cut. Let me tell you what else we did that relates to small business. Most of the new jobs in America are created by small business owners. Seventy percent of small businesses -- or new jobs are created by small businesses. And so most small businesses are sub-chapter S corporations, or sole proprietorships. Those are legal words for meaning they pay tax at the individual income tax rates. So when you cut the taxes on the individuals, you're really cutting taxes on small businesses around America. And if you're interested in job growth, it makes sense to allow small businesses to have more of their own capital so they can expand and grow and hire more people.
"We also provided incentives in the tax code to allow small businesses to deduct up to $100,000, as opposed to $25,000. We had bonus depreciation plans available for investment. So we've made a difference and the results are good. They really are good, when you think about it. And the unemployment rate here in this state is 4.1 percent. That's good, real good. (Applause) The inflation is low, interest rates are low. Home ownership is at the highest rate ever. That's positive for society. We want people owning things. We want people owning their own business; we want people owning their own home.
"By the way, minority home ownership rates are extraordinarily high in America, and that is really important, too, for our country. (Applause)
"Manufacturing is increasing and we've had job growth. Now, there's more to do, and we're not going to be satisfied until people who want to work can find a job. And so what are the things we can do? Well, one, we need an energy plan. It's hard to run a business, it's hard to be a manufacturer if you're worried about the reliability of energy. Ask somebody what it's like to run a business that requires energy and your energy bills spike up. Or what was it like if you're worried about getting electricity at all, because the grid is antiquated. It wasn't all that long ago, like last summer, that much of the East Coast was affected because the grid is old.
"We need an energy bill that encourages conservation, alternative sources of energy, a bill that modernizes the electricity system, and a bill that makes us less dependent on foreign sources of energy. (Applause) In order to make sure jobs stay here at home, in order to make sure people can find work, we need to be competitive. That's what we need to be thinking about -- how to make sure we can do a better job of encouraging the entrepreneurial spirit to be strong so people create jobs in America. One way is good energy policy.
"We need tort reform. If you're a business owner -- (Applause) You talk to any business owner and in most places, they're worried about junk lawsuits that run up the cost of doing business. When they spend more time fighting off a junk lawsuit, it means there's less time hiring somebody.
"We need to worry about the cost of medicine. Listen, health care costs are going up. You ask any business owner what it's like to run a small business and they'll tell you, “One of my big fears is that I can't provide for my employees," they'll tell you, because the cost of health care is going up. There's a debate in Washington. There's a philosophical debate over who you want running the health care. There's some up there, good people, good, honest, decent Americans who say, we want the federal government making all the health care decisions. I'm on the other side of that. I think we want consumers to be making -- (Applause)
"There's some practical ways to do that. One, small businesses ought to be allowed to pool risk across jurisdictional lines so they can get the same purchasing power that big businesses have. Those are called association health care plans. Another interesting option for small businesses and employees is called health savings accounts; let's you put money in your health saving account tax-free, earn money tax-free, take money out tax-free. And you combine that with a major medical insurance policy, you've got yourself affordable health care. And it's good for small businesses. These are exciting options that are now developing in the marketplace, where the consumer has got more choice over the decision-making as opposed to government.
"Finally, in order to make sure that the health care costs are reasonable, we need medical liability reform. I want to praise the Governor and the Speaker and the Senator for working on medical liability reform here in New Hampshire. We need national medical liability reform, too." (Applause)
(Bush moves on to speaking about a few more tax cuts, then goes to the issue of trade which directly impacts jobs in the U.S.)
"Presidents before me, both Republican and Democrat, had made the decision to make our markets relatively open, compared to other countries, because it's good for U.S. consumers. You see, when consumers have got more choices, and there's more competition, it gives you -- it helps satisfy your demand at reasonable price.
"And so the fundamental question is, do we keep our market open, or do we close it. My attitude is, we keep it open, but make sure others open theirs, too. See? And make sure the playing field is level. I've got great confidence in New Hampshire's workers. I've got great confidence in --(Applause) -- I've got great confidence in New Hampshire's entrepreneurs. I've got great confidence in products that say, "Made in the USA." (Applause) And so do a lot of people who live in other lands. So let's sell. Let's have a -- I'm going to continue what I've been doing, and say, you reduce your barriers. See? Ours are down, just treat us the same. One way to make sure jobs don't go overseas, and one sure way to make sure we're vibrant here at home is to insist that other people lower their barriers so we can compete. That's all we ask. Just give us a chance. America's -- Americans can rise to the challenge, trust me." (Applause)
Later, I'll post Kerry's jobs plan revealed during a speech today (Friday) in Detroit.
Wednesday, March 24, 2004
During the time the Democrats were vying to become the party nominee for president, the unemployment problem in the U.S. was finally getting the attention it deserved. As regular readers of this blog know, it wasn't until Howard Dean imploded that Democrats began taking shots at the Bush administration on the jobless recovery and found that those shots were connecting with average Americans. However, better late than never, the unemployed were starting to believe their struggles and frustrations were beginning to matter.
Well, so much for that ray of light.
Once again the issues stray away from unemployment and on to national security and the fight against terrorism. This isn't to say these aren't worthy subjects, but they shouldn't be the only flavors on the plate. How idiotic was I during elections past to think so lowly of the one issue voter when the results of this election seem to swing on a single issue?
It's not as if the issues surrounding the jobless recovery have suddenly changed that there's no longer a reason for debate. If only Lou Dobbs were running for president, than we could count on daily lectures of the dangers of outsourcing.
In case anyone beside those running for president forgot, what did ever happen to that topic du jour of the Democratic elite? A survey by Deloitte Research shows more than a quarter of a million telecom jobs will go overseas before the end of the second Bush term.
"Global operators are expected to move 5 percent of the industry's 5.5 million jobs, or 275,000 positions, offshore by 2008, the professional services and advice organization said today. What's more, the industry is expected to reap cost savings of $14 billion a year by 2008 from improved call center capabilities and enhanced broadband and mobile data services, according to the research company."
Anyone care to make hay over those statistics? Bush? Kerry? Nader?
While the national politicos continue to trump the unemployment issue with the terrorism card, state governments are still trying to be responsive to the outsourcing issue ... although with mixed results.
Seven states in New England created a food stamp program with the help of corporate giant, Citibank. Basically, instead of stamps, the poor would use a debit card to purchase food. What wasn't known is that the telephone portion of the program was subcontracted out to a firm that employed operators living in India.
"That has stirred controversy in Vermont and Connecticut, and administrators in several of the states said it would be an issue when the contract comes up for renewal."
My bet is by the time the contract comes up for renewal, everyone will have forgotten about the outsourcing portion of the deal. If the contract is killed, I doubt it is going to be over phone calls from India. When an entire industry is selling out to cheaper labor overseas, feel free to review figures from above again, the options for having Americans dialing digits will prove too costly.
It's an easy play now for the local politicians to whine and cry about outsourcing because the deal is done. However, you're asking lawmakers to choose between paying people in India to man the phones or dramatically raise the costs of a welfare program.
Trust me, when times comes, the local lawmakers will make like Bush and Kerry and clam up.
Well, so much for that ray of light.
Once again the issues stray away from unemployment and on to national security and the fight against terrorism. This isn't to say these aren't worthy subjects, but they shouldn't be the only flavors on the plate. How idiotic was I during elections past to think so lowly of the one issue voter when the results of this election seem to swing on a single issue?
It's not as if the issues surrounding the jobless recovery have suddenly changed that there's no longer a reason for debate. If only Lou Dobbs were running for president, than we could count on daily lectures of the dangers of outsourcing.
In case anyone beside those running for president forgot, what did ever happen to that topic du jour of the Democratic elite? A survey by Deloitte Research shows more than a quarter of a million telecom jobs will go overseas before the end of the second Bush term.
"Global operators are expected to move 5 percent of the industry's 5.5 million jobs, or 275,000 positions, offshore by 2008, the professional services and advice organization said today. What's more, the industry is expected to reap cost savings of $14 billion a year by 2008 from improved call center capabilities and enhanced broadband and mobile data services, according to the research company."
Anyone care to make hay over those statistics? Bush? Kerry? Nader?
While the national politicos continue to trump the unemployment issue with the terrorism card, state governments are still trying to be responsive to the outsourcing issue ... although with mixed results.
Seven states in New England created a food stamp program with the help of corporate giant, Citibank. Basically, instead of stamps, the poor would use a debit card to purchase food. What wasn't known is that the telephone portion of the program was subcontracted out to a firm that employed operators living in India.
"That has stirred controversy in Vermont and Connecticut, and administrators in several of the states said it would be an issue when the contract comes up for renewal."
My bet is by the time the contract comes up for renewal, everyone will have forgotten about the outsourcing portion of the deal. If the contract is killed, I doubt it is going to be over phone calls from India. When an entire industry is selling out to cheaper labor overseas, feel free to review figures from above again, the options for having Americans dialing digits will prove too costly.
It's an easy play now for the local politicians to whine and cry about outsourcing because the deal is done. However, you're asking lawmakers to choose between paying people in India to man the phones or dramatically raise the costs of a welfare program.
Trust me, when times comes, the local lawmakers will make like Bush and Kerry and clam up.
Monday, March 22, 2004
Hot headlines from the weekend (plus Monday):
'Show Us the Jobs' tours Rust Belt Following up upon the incredible success of the Bush administration’s "Jobs and Growth Tour" of the last two years, the AFL-CIO has created a bus tour of its own in search of either jobs or growth. The tour kicks off in the Rust Belt where the search crew doesn't figure to be slowed up by finding either jobs or growth in areas such as Michigan and Ohio. This is all organized by labor unions which raises the fear that a flat tire could end the tour since union members would never be able to reach an agreement on who would be responsible for actually fixing the flat and who would have the luxury of just standing around drinking coffee.
World events drag stocks downWho among the unemployed can forget the comforting words of Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, when faced with questions regarding the jobless recovery, dismissed the notion that a lack of jobs reveals weaknesses in the economy by quickly pointing out that the stock market is the real indicator of a strong, growing economy? Yes, it was another glorious day for the unemployed. Well, based on jittery trader's fears, the stock market is in a sudden state of flux. If this were to become a trend, what then becomes the next real indicator of a strong, growing economy?
Taxation, unemployment link absent For those of you clinging to the belief that the Bush tax cuts will create thousands upon thousands of new jobs, catch this little factoid. "When President Clinton raised taxes in 1993, the unemployment rate dropped, from 6.9 to 6.1 percent, and kept falling each of the next seven years." In fairness to Bush, Clinton had a number of other things working in his favor at the time the helped the surge in employment during the '90s, for instance, our generation's version of the 1849 Gold Rush, the Internet. But that's the point. Yes, Virginia, it really does take more than tax cuts to stimulate job growth.
America's Most Coveted Jobs Multiply Elsewhere as 'Offshoring' Proliferates As we sift through the rubble of the jobless recovery, I've tried to not only offer a realistic view of the current unemployment situation, but also a view into the not-so-distant future of the global job marketplace ... with an emphasis on global. As American companies expand further into foreign markets, American jobs are bound to go overseas as well. No longer will it be enough to be among the best and the brightest in your field, depending upon your profession, you also better be internationally mobile.
Lawmakers say low-cost prison labor threatens private jobs Distracting people on the issue of unemployment is as easy as fooling a dog with the old "Where did the ball go" trick. In this case, state lawmakers haven't a clue on how to create job growth so they distract the voters by carping on how many jobs prisoners are taking from them. Now they want prison work programs to compete with private companies for government contracts. Hmmm, let's see, we pay prisoners well below minimum wage, we won't have to splurge on health or insurance benefits, and our production costs are below market scale. Who do you suppose is going to win that bidding war?
Next thing you know, retired government pinheads are going to make a comeback and start taking government jobs away from hard working American families.
Oops, get a bill ready to pass against old men who can't stand being stuck alone with their wives.
'Show Us the Jobs' tours Rust Belt Following up upon the incredible success of the Bush administration’s "Jobs and Growth Tour" of the last two years, the AFL-CIO has created a bus tour of its own in search of either jobs or growth. The tour kicks off in the Rust Belt where the search crew doesn't figure to be slowed up by finding either jobs or growth in areas such as Michigan and Ohio. This is all organized by labor unions which raises the fear that a flat tire could end the tour since union members would never be able to reach an agreement on who would be responsible for actually fixing the flat and who would have the luxury of just standing around drinking coffee.
World events drag stocks downWho among the unemployed can forget the comforting words of Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, when faced with questions regarding the jobless recovery, dismissed the notion that a lack of jobs reveals weaknesses in the economy by quickly pointing out that the stock market is the real indicator of a strong, growing economy? Yes, it was another glorious day for the unemployed. Well, based on jittery trader's fears, the stock market is in a sudden state of flux. If this were to become a trend, what then becomes the next real indicator of a strong, growing economy?
Taxation, unemployment link absent For those of you clinging to the belief that the Bush tax cuts will create thousands upon thousands of new jobs, catch this little factoid. "When President Clinton raised taxes in 1993, the unemployment rate dropped, from 6.9 to 6.1 percent, and kept falling each of the next seven years." In fairness to Bush, Clinton had a number of other things working in his favor at the time the helped the surge in employment during the '90s, for instance, our generation's version of the 1849 Gold Rush, the Internet. But that's the point. Yes, Virginia, it really does take more than tax cuts to stimulate job growth.
America's Most Coveted Jobs Multiply Elsewhere as 'Offshoring' Proliferates As we sift through the rubble of the jobless recovery, I've tried to not only offer a realistic view of the current unemployment situation, but also a view into the not-so-distant future of the global job marketplace ... with an emphasis on global. As American companies expand further into foreign markets, American jobs are bound to go overseas as well. No longer will it be enough to be among the best and the brightest in your field, depending upon your profession, you also better be internationally mobile.
Lawmakers say low-cost prison labor threatens private jobs Distracting people on the issue of unemployment is as easy as fooling a dog with the old "Where did the ball go" trick. In this case, state lawmakers haven't a clue on how to create job growth so they distract the voters by carping on how many jobs prisoners are taking from them. Now they want prison work programs to compete with private companies for government contracts. Hmmm, let's see, we pay prisoners well below minimum wage, we won't have to splurge on health or insurance benefits, and our production costs are below market scale. Who do you suppose is going to win that bidding war?
Next thing you know, retired government pinheads are going to make a comeback and start taking government jobs away from hard working American families.
Oops, get a bill ready to pass against old men who can't stand being stuck alone with their wives.
Friday, March 19, 2004
When stabbed in the back, does it matter if the attacker refers to its weapon as a knife, dagger or shank? To the helpless victim dying on the floor, it sure doesn't.
The National Park Service is once again going through another round of layoffs, job eliminations or dismissals. However, the Bush administration is changing course and playing with words, not numbers this time, and creating a new way to spin the loss of jobs in the National Park Service.
When referring to cuts in the National Park Service such as visiting hours, days and jobs, the correct terminology is to say these are simply a "service level adjustment." No, you haven't been laid off, Mr./Mrs. Park Ranger; you've just been adjusted.
While I'm not wild about the popularity of a show that turns "You're fired," into a national catch phrase during a three-year unemployment crisis, at least it's more upfront and respectful than telling someone they've been adjusted. No, the Donald doesn't have any more sympathy for his group of apprentices than the White House does for the Park Service employees, but at least you can respect the way the news is delivered.
(Free advice time: Hey, Kerry! I'm not exactly wowed by your credentials or performance thus far, but you're crack ad staff should find a way to use "You're fired," when referring to Bush. But please, don't schmuck it up like Mondale did with "Where's the beef" in 1984.)
If you're going to fire me, fire me, there's nothing more I can do about it, but have enough respect for the employee to not try to spin it into something it's not. Professionals losing their jobs still have bills to pay and families to feed and fewer resources to do it. Don't make this out like the high school girls who don't make the cheer squad ... at least they can always carry the equipment.
Admittedly, this "service level adjustment" has more to do with park services than jobs. However, jobs are still involved and it is yet another example of how the Bush administration keeps trying to fabricate the facts on employment. This one ranks right up there with trying to classify fast food preparation as manufacturing jobs.
Among the proposed cuts according to the Park Service memos sent by Park Service Deputy Director Randy Jones:
Reducing the number of lifeguards on beaches
Eliminating all ranger-guided tours
Not cutting lawns
Privatizing campgrounds
Closing parks every Sunday and Monday during the summer season
Refrain from issuing news releases about the cuts
So the summary up above says to me:
Lifeguards, grounds crew, part time support crew, media relation interns: "You're fired, er, adjusted!"
Tour guides: "You're hours are reduced, er, adjusted!"
Fun with words, fun with numbers, either way, the working class and the unemployed lose again ... or do we need to find a new way to spin losing?
The National Park Service is once again going through another round of layoffs, job eliminations or dismissals. However, the Bush administration is changing course and playing with words, not numbers this time, and creating a new way to spin the loss of jobs in the National Park Service.
When referring to cuts in the National Park Service such as visiting hours, days and jobs, the correct terminology is to say these are simply a "service level adjustment." No, you haven't been laid off, Mr./Mrs. Park Ranger; you've just been adjusted.
While I'm not wild about the popularity of a show that turns "You're fired," into a national catch phrase during a three-year unemployment crisis, at least it's more upfront and respectful than telling someone they've been adjusted. No, the Donald doesn't have any more sympathy for his group of apprentices than the White House does for the Park Service employees, but at least you can respect the way the news is delivered.
(Free advice time: Hey, Kerry! I'm not exactly wowed by your credentials or performance thus far, but you're crack ad staff should find a way to use "You're fired," when referring to Bush. But please, don't schmuck it up like Mondale did with "Where's the beef" in 1984.)
If you're going to fire me, fire me, there's nothing more I can do about it, but have enough respect for the employee to not try to spin it into something it's not. Professionals losing their jobs still have bills to pay and families to feed and fewer resources to do it. Don't make this out like the high school girls who don't make the cheer squad ... at least they can always carry the equipment.
Admittedly, this "service level adjustment" has more to do with park services than jobs. However, jobs are still involved and it is yet another example of how the Bush administration keeps trying to fabricate the facts on employment. This one ranks right up there with trying to classify fast food preparation as manufacturing jobs.
Among the proposed cuts according to the Park Service memos sent by Park Service Deputy Director Randy Jones:
So the summary up above says to me:
Fun with words, fun with numbers, either way, the working class and the unemployed lose again ... or do we need to find a new way to spin losing?
Wednesday, March 17, 2004
A lot has been made about the recent Manpower survey showing that 28 percent of leading American companies plan to hire within the next three months. This is the strongest survey result in three years for the forecasting of hiring trends, however, the last three years have also seen a drop of around 2.6 million U.S. jobs, so it's not as if this upcoming hiring binge is at a breakneck pace. Another way to look at this is that there is still another 72 percent that are not hiring or could be laying off employees negating the potential gains, but we'll put our faith in Manpower's forecasting and hope for the best.
Rather than present what I may see as highlights from the Manpower survey, I thought I would just drop it here on the blog for your enjoyment.
U.S. employers expect the seasonally adjusted hiring pace from April to June to be stronger than it has been since the first quarter of 2001, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc.
Of the 16,000 U.S. employers that were surveyed, 28% said they plan to increase hiring activity for the April – June period, while 6% expect a decrease in employment opportunities. Another 62% of employers foresee no change in hiring, and 4% are uncertain of their staffing plans. When the seasonal variations are removed from the data, the outlook for the second quarter is more positive than it was last quarter and is nearly twice as strong as it was last year at this time. This marks the third consecutive quarter of increased hiring activity.
"Based on the hiring intentions that were reported across a majority of the companies surveyed, it is clear that demand for their products and services has finally surpassed the capacity and productivity of the current workforce," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc. Hiring is expected to improve across each of the four U.S. regions and in all 10 industry sectors surveyed, compared with survey results from last quarter and a year ago.
"Employers in the much-watched manufacturing sectors project notable increases in hiring activity. Construction employers are particularly confident about job opportunities in the second quarter, predicting the strongest employment outlook since 1978," said Joerres.
The job picture is strongest in the South. With the exception of last quarter’s survey, employers in the South have been among the most optimistic in their hiring plans since the second quarter of 2002. The fewest job opportunities for the April – June period are anticipated in the Northeast.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey results by sector are as follows:
Construction: Second quarter job prospects in Construction are the strongest of all of the industry sectors. Construction employers are more optimistic about hiring than they have been since the late 1970’s, according to the seasonally adjusted data. For the third consecutive quarter, a moderate increase in hiring is expected, and job prospects are considerably better than a year ago at this time. Hiring expectations are strongest in the South and weakest in the Midwest.
Education: Second quarter hiring intentions for the Education sector show a continued pattern of steady job growth. According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers plan slight increases in the hiring pace compared to last quarter and a year ago. Jobs are expected to be most plentiful in the South and fewest in the Midwest and West.
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate: Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers report hiring plans similar to those issued the last two quarters and predict some job gains for the second quarter. Employers in this sector expect a slight increase in hiring over last quarter and a moderate increase compared with a year ago. Job prospects are most promising in the West, with the Northeast and South not far behind. Midwest employers report the weakest hiring intentions in this sector.
Manufacturing – Durable Goods: When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Durable Goods Manufacturers expressed their strongest hiring intentions since the first quarter of 2001. Employers expect a moderate increase in jobs over last quarter and considerable growth compared with a year ago. The strongest hiring activity for this sector is expected in the South, and employers in the Northeast anticipate the fewest job opportunities.
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods: According to the seasonally adjusted data, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers plan to hire at a steady pace during the second quarter. This marks the highest expectations in job market growth in three years for the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing sector. Employers report a moderate increase in jobs over last quarter and last year at this time. Estimated employment levels are strongest in the Midwest and weakest in the Northeast.
Mining: On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mining employers anticipate steady job gains. The hiring pace is expected to be consistent with last quarter but more upbeat than a year ago at this time. For the second quarter, hiring intentions among Mining employers are most optimistic in the South. The least promising job outlook for the Mining sector is in the Northeast with significant job losses anticipated.
Public Administration: Hiring plans among Public Administration employers have fluctuated during the last two years, and predictions for the coming quarter continue the pattern. Modest job gains are expected when seasonal variations are removed from the data, with more hiring expected over last quarter and last year. The strongest hiring activity is expected in the South, while the fewest job opportunities are anticipated in the West.
Services: The employment outlook for the Services sector suggests healthy job market growth not seen since the second quarter of 2001. Employers are more positive in their hiring intentions than they were last quarter and a year ago. According to seasonally adjusted data, employment opportunities will be most plentiful in the West. Employers in the Midwest and Northeast anticipate the fewest job openings.
Transportation & Public Utilities: When the seasonal variations are removed from the data, job opportunities in Transportation/Public Utilities are expected to return to levels last seen during the second quarter of 2001. Hiring projections are up from last quarter, and significantly more optimistic than last year. Employers in the South and West anticipate the strongest hiring activity, while those in the Midwest expect to hire at a slower pace than the other U.S. regions.
Wholesale & Retail Trade: On a seasonally adjusted basis, the employment outlook in the Wholesale/Retail Trade industry is healthier than it has been in the last three years. Hiring expectations continue their steady climb in the second quarter. A modest increase in job prospects from last quarter is anticipated, as is significant job growth over last year. There is little variation in the employment outlook across the regions. The most job opportunities are predicted in the South, and similar gains are expected in the Midwest and West. Slightly less hiring activity is estimated in the Northeast.
Rather than present what I may see as highlights from the Manpower survey, I thought I would just drop it here on the blog for your enjoyment.
U.S. employers expect the seasonally adjusted hiring pace from April to June to be stronger than it has been since the first quarter of 2001, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc.
Of the 16,000 U.S. employers that were surveyed, 28% said they plan to increase hiring activity for the April – June period, while 6% expect a decrease in employment opportunities. Another 62% of employers foresee no change in hiring, and 4% are uncertain of their staffing plans. When the seasonal variations are removed from the data, the outlook for the second quarter is more positive than it was last quarter and is nearly twice as strong as it was last year at this time. This marks the third consecutive quarter of increased hiring activity.
"Based on the hiring intentions that were reported across a majority of the companies surveyed, it is clear that demand for their products and services has finally surpassed the capacity and productivity of the current workforce," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc. Hiring is expected to improve across each of the four U.S. regions and in all 10 industry sectors surveyed, compared with survey results from last quarter and a year ago.
"Employers in the much-watched manufacturing sectors project notable increases in hiring activity. Construction employers are particularly confident about job opportunities in the second quarter, predicting the strongest employment outlook since 1978," said Joerres.
The job picture is strongest in the South. With the exception of last quarter’s survey, employers in the South have been among the most optimistic in their hiring plans since the second quarter of 2002. The fewest job opportunities for the April – June period are anticipated in the Northeast.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey results by sector are as follows:
Construction: Second quarter job prospects in Construction are the strongest of all of the industry sectors. Construction employers are more optimistic about hiring than they have been since the late 1970’s, according to the seasonally adjusted data. For the third consecutive quarter, a moderate increase in hiring is expected, and job prospects are considerably better than a year ago at this time. Hiring expectations are strongest in the South and weakest in the Midwest.
Education: Second quarter hiring intentions for the Education sector show a continued pattern of steady job growth. According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers plan slight increases in the hiring pace compared to last quarter and a year ago. Jobs are expected to be most plentiful in the South and fewest in the Midwest and West.
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate: Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers report hiring plans similar to those issued the last two quarters and predict some job gains for the second quarter. Employers in this sector expect a slight increase in hiring over last quarter and a moderate increase compared with a year ago. Job prospects are most promising in the West, with the Northeast and South not far behind. Midwest employers report the weakest hiring intentions in this sector.
Manufacturing – Durable Goods: When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Durable Goods Manufacturers expressed their strongest hiring intentions since the first quarter of 2001. Employers expect a moderate increase in jobs over last quarter and considerable growth compared with a year ago. The strongest hiring activity for this sector is expected in the South, and employers in the Northeast anticipate the fewest job opportunities.
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods: According to the seasonally adjusted data, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers plan to hire at a steady pace during the second quarter. This marks the highest expectations in job market growth in three years for the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing sector. Employers report a moderate increase in jobs over last quarter and last year at this time. Estimated employment levels are strongest in the Midwest and weakest in the Northeast.
Mining: On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mining employers anticipate steady job gains. The hiring pace is expected to be consistent with last quarter but more upbeat than a year ago at this time. For the second quarter, hiring intentions among Mining employers are most optimistic in the South. The least promising job outlook for the Mining sector is in the Northeast with significant job losses anticipated.
Public Administration: Hiring plans among Public Administration employers have fluctuated during the last two years, and predictions for the coming quarter continue the pattern. Modest job gains are expected when seasonal variations are removed from the data, with more hiring expected over last quarter and last year. The strongest hiring activity is expected in the South, while the fewest job opportunities are anticipated in the West.
Services: The employment outlook for the Services sector suggests healthy job market growth not seen since the second quarter of 2001. Employers are more positive in their hiring intentions than they were last quarter and a year ago. According to seasonally adjusted data, employment opportunities will be most plentiful in the West. Employers in the Midwest and Northeast anticipate the fewest job openings.
Transportation & Public Utilities: When the seasonal variations are removed from the data, job opportunities in Transportation/Public Utilities are expected to return to levels last seen during the second quarter of 2001. Hiring projections are up from last quarter, and significantly more optimistic than last year. Employers in the South and West anticipate the strongest hiring activity, while those in the Midwest expect to hire at a slower pace than the other U.S. regions.
Wholesale & Retail Trade: On a seasonally adjusted basis, the employment outlook in the Wholesale/Retail Trade industry is healthier than it has been in the last three years. Hiring expectations continue their steady climb in the second quarter. A modest increase in job prospects from last quarter is anticipated, as is significant job growth over last year. There is little variation in the employment outlook across the regions. The most job opportunities are predicted in the South, and similar gains are expected in the Midwest and West. Slightly less hiring activity is estimated in the Northeast.
Sunday, March 14, 2004
Hot headlines from the weekend:
Economists Say 'Offshoring' Overblown as a Problem Easy for them to say when it is not their jobs magically being recreated across the Pacific. Is this an issue that's getting more attention than it deserves? One could consider the following from the story: "Forrester Research estimated in a November 2002 report that 3.3 million service-industry jobs would be relocated abroad by 2015, compared with the 108 million service-related positions that existed as of January."
Jobs more deadly for Mexicans I use this blog for many purposes when it comes to the issues of unemployment and job searching, such as exposing the truth behind the rhetoric. One fallacy that refuses to go away is the belief that illegal immigrants are taking away many jobs from ready and willing Americans in this country. As I've pointed out many times before, the people crossing the borders are being victimized by American companies illegally exploiting them. As shown in this story, many of the jobs filled by illegal immigrants are not only undesirable, but often life threatening.
U.S. gas prices reach record high Yet another reason to reinstate the federal unemployment extended benefits. Not only is it still incredibly difficult to land a job (and it may still get tougher, see below), but the daily living expenses continue to rise to record high levels. Keep in mind, we have yet to hit the summer driving season when gas prices really spike. Also, what effects will the gas prices have on the summer tourist season and how does that translate into job creation? Forecast: Gloomy.
Unemployment tax pinches bottom lines I've recounted on many occasions how the ridiculously high health insurance rates are keeping a lid on companies expanding their payrolls, well, you can now add the rising costs of unemployment taxes to the list of reasons the jobs creation crisis refuses to improve. The harder the bottom line gets hit, the longer the unemployment line grows.
Some companies seeking fees with job applications despite law Here's proposed law coming to a statehouse near you. In North Carolina, it is illegal for companies with more than 25 employees to ask applicants to pay for pre-employment requirements such as drug tests and record collection. I say this will soon be before many a state government as companies try to waive such laws taking advantage of desperate job seekers and passing HR costs to the applicants. What's sad is the unemployed would probably be willing to absorb the costs on the hunch that "the company wouldn't ask me to do this unless it was really interested in hiring me." Oh, you know that's true. Sad, but true.
Keep your ears open for this issue in the future.
Economists Say 'Offshoring' Overblown as a Problem Easy for them to say when it is not their jobs magically being recreated across the Pacific. Is this an issue that's getting more attention than it deserves? One could consider the following from the story: "Forrester Research estimated in a November 2002 report that 3.3 million service-industry jobs would be relocated abroad by 2015, compared with the 108 million service-related positions that existed as of January."
Jobs more deadly for Mexicans I use this blog for many purposes when it comes to the issues of unemployment and job searching, such as exposing the truth behind the rhetoric. One fallacy that refuses to go away is the belief that illegal immigrants are taking away many jobs from ready and willing Americans in this country. As I've pointed out many times before, the people crossing the borders are being victimized by American companies illegally exploiting them. As shown in this story, many of the jobs filled by illegal immigrants are not only undesirable, but often life threatening.
U.S. gas prices reach record high Yet another reason to reinstate the federal unemployment extended benefits. Not only is it still incredibly difficult to land a job (and it may still get tougher, see below), but the daily living expenses continue to rise to record high levels. Keep in mind, we have yet to hit the summer driving season when gas prices really spike. Also, what effects will the gas prices have on the summer tourist season and how does that translate into job creation? Forecast: Gloomy.
Unemployment tax pinches bottom lines I've recounted on many occasions how the ridiculously high health insurance rates are keeping a lid on companies expanding their payrolls, well, you can now add the rising costs of unemployment taxes to the list of reasons the jobs creation crisis refuses to improve. The harder the bottom line gets hit, the longer the unemployment line grows.
Some companies seeking fees with job applications despite law Here's proposed law coming to a statehouse near you. In North Carolina, it is illegal for companies with more than 25 employees to ask applicants to pay for pre-employment requirements such as drug tests and record collection. I say this will soon be before many a state government as companies try to waive such laws taking advantage of desperate job seekers and passing HR costs to the applicants. What's sad is the unemployed would probably be willing to absorb the costs on the hunch that "the company wouldn't ask me to do this unless it was really interested in hiring me." Oh, you know that's true. Sad, but true.
Keep your ears open for this issue in the future.
Sunday, March 07, 2004
Hot headlines from the weekend:
Long-term unemployment at 30-year high Our friends at the Economic Policy Institute are having fun with numbers again, but don't expect the Bush administration to want to play along. The EPI shows that those unemployed for six months or longer make up almost a quarter of all unemployed Americans. The long-term unemployment percentage is the worst it has been since 1983. I might also throw in that unemployment is still hitting Ohio hard as Youngstown, Ohio has an unemployment rate of 16.6 percent and Dayton has it at 11.4 percent. Where again does one need to go to find the recovery?
Why a growing economy refuses to create jobs The reasons outlined in this story aren't new to regular visitors of this blog. We've discussed them many times before. For the newbies, increased work weeks, higher productivity and rising costs are just killing the job recovery. My favorite line in the story is as follows, "... the Department of Labor reported that the February unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent. Economists pointed out, however, that some 392,000 dropped out of the labor force. Without those dropouts, the unemployment rate would have risen to 5.8 percent.
What about the 300,000+ who dropped out in January? Could we suppose the rate should be 6 percent or more?
Asians corner most of new jobs in the U.S. I haven't ever blamed the people of India, China or Mexico for the outsourcing craze that also contributes to the jobless recovery. It has always been the investor class in this country who push their companies to look overseas to take advantage of the low wages. However, this story reflects some of the frustration I believe Asians in the U.S. are feeling about the disrespect they may take from frustrated American workers. The author of this story makes the case that talent and education are taking Asians workers just as far in the U.S. as lower wages do internationally.
Anonymous voice of America's unemployed Many people use various ways to express their frustration with the ongoing unemployment crisis. For me, it was this blog started on July 15, 2003, one year after I was pink slipped by a former now defunct employer. An Arizona woman decided to spill her frustrations into an answering machine message that spurred this column in the Arizona Republic. Yes, this could have been anyone feeling the same pings of resentment, pain and frustration, the only comfort is knowing you're not alone. We all feel the pain.
Woman, grateful for new job, gives $500 to unemployed Let's hear it for the anonymous contributor to the plight of the unemployed. A North Dakota woman slipped an envelope into the state office of labor containing five $100 bills. Each bill is to go to a deserving member of the unemployed. While it is understandable to lose faith in Congress after ending the federal emergency unemployment insurance for hundreds of thousands of unemployed, leave it to everyday citizens to try and do something to give back and help. Best yet, it was done anonymously. If it had been done by a politician or other public figures such as Donald (You're fired) Trump, there would have been an army of cameras there to capture the moment.
The anonymous owner of this blog salutes you, whoever and wherever you are in North Dakota.
Long-term unemployment at 30-year high Our friends at the Economic Policy Institute are having fun with numbers again, but don't expect the Bush administration to want to play along. The EPI shows that those unemployed for six months or longer make up almost a quarter of all unemployed Americans. The long-term unemployment percentage is the worst it has been since 1983. I might also throw in that unemployment is still hitting Ohio hard as Youngstown, Ohio has an unemployment rate of 16.6 percent and Dayton has it at 11.4 percent. Where again does one need to go to find the recovery?
Why a growing economy refuses to create jobs The reasons outlined in this story aren't new to regular visitors of this blog. We've discussed them many times before. For the newbies, increased work weeks, higher productivity and rising costs are just killing the job recovery. My favorite line in the story is as follows, "... the Department of Labor reported that the February unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent. Economists pointed out, however, that some 392,000 dropped out of the labor force. Without those dropouts, the unemployment rate would have risen to 5.8 percent.
What about the 300,000+ who dropped out in January? Could we suppose the rate should be 6 percent or more?
Asians corner most of new jobs in the U.S. I haven't ever blamed the people of India, China or Mexico for the outsourcing craze that also contributes to the jobless recovery. It has always been the investor class in this country who push their companies to look overseas to take advantage of the low wages. However, this story reflects some of the frustration I believe Asians in the U.S. are feeling about the disrespect they may take from frustrated American workers. The author of this story makes the case that talent and education are taking Asians workers just as far in the U.S. as lower wages do internationally.
Anonymous voice of America's unemployed Many people use various ways to express their frustration with the ongoing unemployment crisis. For me, it was this blog started on July 15, 2003, one year after I was pink slipped by a former now defunct employer. An Arizona woman decided to spill her frustrations into an answering machine message that spurred this column in the Arizona Republic. Yes, this could have been anyone feeling the same pings of resentment, pain and frustration, the only comfort is knowing you're not alone. We all feel the pain.
Woman, grateful for new job, gives $500 to unemployed Let's hear it for the anonymous contributor to the plight of the unemployed. A North Dakota woman slipped an envelope into the state office of labor containing five $100 bills. Each bill is to go to a deserving member of the unemployed. While it is understandable to lose faith in Congress after ending the federal emergency unemployment insurance for hundreds of thousands of unemployed, leave it to everyday citizens to try and do something to give back and help. Best yet, it was done anonymously. If it had been done by a politician or other public figures such as Donald (You're fired) Trump, there would have been an army of cameras there to capture the moment.
The anonymous owner of this blog salutes you, whoever and wherever you are in North Dakota.
Friday, March 05, 2004
The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a bombshell on the Bush administration today announcing only 21,000 jobs were created in the month of February.
Excuse me, but 21,000! Are you kidding me? That's only 104,000 less than the conservative estimates by most economists.
That's fewer than 1,000 jobs a day. That's just 420 new jobs per each state in the union.
This is during the first quarter of the year when many companies reload the office pool after using brown time during the fourth quarter of the year.
This is after months of Bush harping on how his tax cuts were turning things around for the economy and the jobs were sure to rush back.
And checking the trusty new scoreboard next to the blog, it puts him even further behind in his quest for the projected 2.6 million jobs his economic team predicted would be created in February. In January, the Bush administration was on pace for 1.3 million jobs in 2004, after today's employment report, that pace has dropped to just 798,000 jobs in 2004.
The president can run all the ads exploiting 9-11 to his benefit that he wants, but you can't spin these figures. This is a complete washout, bust, toe stub, fill in any graphic description you like, this is swinging for the fences and falling on your ass.
There's no joy to be taken in this news, as it's the unemployed who must continue to suffer. At worst, Bush hangs on to his job for another 10 months. Meanwhile, the unemployed stare at dimming prospects and many more of them watch as their time without a job extends to 10 months and beyond. And please, don't buy the hype on the unemployment figure holding at 5.6 percent. Without an extension of federal unemployment insurance, that figure is a phony as the 2.6 million new jobs prediction of 2004.
Stop playing with the numbers because you're really only playing with millions of people's lives.
Below is today's statement from Kathleen P. Utgoff, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
"Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in February (+21,000), as the number of jobs held steady in most major industries. Since August 2003, total payroll employment has risen by 364,000. The unemployment rate was 5.6 percent, unchanged over the month but down from its recent peak in June 2003.
"Turning first to our payroll survey data, construction employment declined in February (-24,000) following an increase (+34,000) in January. Taking a longer view, employment in construction has trended upward since March of last year; over the period, 123,000 jobs have been added.
"Employment in manufacturing basically was unchanged in February (-3,000). The rate of job loss in our nation's factories has moderated quite a bit since last summer. The improvement has been more pronounced in durable goods manufacturing. In fact, employment in a few durable goods industries, such as fabricated metals and wood products, is up slightly in recent months. For manufacturing overall, the factory workweek edged up in February to 41.0 hours, and overtime hours were unchanged at 4.5 hours. Both measures are up substantially since last summer.
"Also within the goods-producing sector, mining employment continued to trend slowly upward in February; oil and gas extraction has accounted for much of the recent growth.
"None of the major segments of the service-providing sector showed a significant employment change in February. Wholesale trade employment was unchanged following 3 months of growth. Among retailers overall, there has been no net job growth since the onset of the holiday shopping season last fall. Employment in a few retail components continued to edge up in February, notably building material and garden supply stores. Employment was essentially flat in financial activities in February, although the securities component continued to add jobs. Employment in securities is up by 18,000 since August. Credit intermediation, which includes mortgage banking, has lost 22,000 jobs over the same period.
"The job total in information was little changed in February; employment declines in the industry have eased since last fall. As with other industries, this represents somewhat of an improvement, given that the information sector had lost 15 percent of its jobs between March 2001 and October 2003.
"There was little employment change in professional and business services overall in February. Within the sector, temporary help services added 32,000 jobs over the month. With the exception of a small decline in January, employment in temporary help has been climbing steadily since April 2003. Over the period, there has been a net gain of 215,000 jobs.
"Employment in health care and social assistance continued to trend upward in February. However, the average gain for the first 2 months of this year has been about half the average monthly increase for 2003. Hospital employment declined over the month, while there was a job gain in social assistance, largely in child day care services.
"Employment in State government rose by 20,000 over the month and has trended up since last summer. Over the same period, employment is down in local government.
"Average hourly earnings for private production or nonsupervisory workers rose by 3 cents in February. Over the 12 months ending in February, hourly earnings increased by 1.6 percent.
"Taking a look at some of the measures obtained from our survey of households, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent in February. The number of unemployed persons also was little changed at about 8.2 million. Both measures are below their recent highs of June 2003. Jobless rates for major worker groups either remained the same or showed little movement over the month.
"The labor force participation rate fell to 65.9 percent in February, reflecting a steep drop-off in the number of men in the labor force. The employment-population ratio was down over the month to 62.2 percent; it held at or near that level for most of 2003.
"The number of persons working part time who would have preferred full-time employment declined over the month to 4.4 million. It had been at about 4.8 million during the last several months.
"Among those not in the labor force, the number of discouraged workers--those who have stopped seeking work because of discouragement over their job prospects--was 484,000 in February, about the same as a year earlier but well above the levels that existed prior to the recent recession.
"In summary, nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in February as the job totals in most industries held steady, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent."
Excuse me, but 21,000! Are you kidding me? That's only 104,000 less than the conservative estimates by most economists.
That's fewer than 1,000 jobs a day. That's just 420 new jobs per each state in the union.
This is during the first quarter of the year when many companies reload the office pool after using brown time during the fourth quarter of the year.
This is after months of Bush harping on how his tax cuts were turning things around for the economy and the jobs were sure to rush back.
And checking the trusty new scoreboard next to the blog, it puts him even further behind in his quest for the projected 2.6 million jobs his economic team predicted would be created in February. In January, the Bush administration was on pace for 1.3 million jobs in 2004, after today's employment report, that pace has dropped to just 798,000 jobs in 2004.
The president can run all the ads exploiting 9-11 to his benefit that he wants, but you can't spin these figures. This is a complete washout, bust, toe stub, fill in any graphic description you like, this is swinging for the fences and falling on your ass.
There's no joy to be taken in this news, as it's the unemployed who must continue to suffer. At worst, Bush hangs on to his job for another 10 months. Meanwhile, the unemployed stare at dimming prospects and many more of them watch as their time without a job extends to 10 months and beyond. And please, don't buy the hype on the unemployment figure holding at 5.6 percent. Without an extension of federal unemployment insurance, that figure is a phony as the 2.6 million new jobs prediction of 2004.
Stop playing with the numbers because you're really only playing with millions of people's lives.
Below is today's statement from Kathleen P. Utgoff, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
"Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in February (+21,000), as the number of jobs held steady in most major industries. Since August 2003, total payroll employment has risen by 364,000. The unemployment rate was 5.6 percent, unchanged over the month but down from its recent peak in June 2003.
"Turning first to our payroll survey data, construction employment declined in February (-24,000) following an increase (+34,000) in January. Taking a longer view, employment in construction has trended upward since March of last year; over the period, 123,000 jobs have been added.
"Employment in manufacturing basically was unchanged in February (-3,000). The rate of job loss in our nation's factories has moderated quite a bit since last summer. The improvement has been more pronounced in durable goods manufacturing. In fact, employment in a few durable goods industries, such as fabricated metals and wood products, is up slightly in recent months. For manufacturing overall, the factory workweek edged up in February to 41.0 hours, and overtime hours were unchanged at 4.5 hours. Both measures are up substantially since last summer.
"Also within the goods-producing sector, mining employment continued to trend slowly upward in February; oil and gas extraction has accounted for much of the recent growth.
"None of the major segments of the service-providing sector showed a significant employment change in February. Wholesale trade employment was unchanged following 3 months of growth. Among retailers overall, there has been no net job growth since the onset of the holiday shopping season last fall. Employment in a few retail components continued to edge up in February, notably building material and garden supply stores. Employment was essentially flat in financial activities in February, although the securities component continued to add jobs. Employment in securities is up by 18,000 since August. Credit intermediation, which includes mortgage banking, has lost 22,000 jobs over the same period.
"The job total in information was little changed in February; employment declines in the industry have eased since last fall. As with other industries, this represents somewhat of an improvement, given that the information sector had lost 15 percent of its jobs between March 2001 and October 2003.
"There was little employment change in professional and business services overall in February. Within the sector, temporary help services added 32,000 jobs over the month. With the exception of a small decline in January, employment in temporary help has been climbing steadily since April 2003. Over the period, there has been a net gain of 215,000 jobs.
"Employment in health care and social assistance continued to trend upward in February. However, the average gain for the first 2 months of this year has been about half the average monthly increase for 2003. Hospital employment declined over the month, while there was a job gain in social assistance, largely in child day care services.
"Employment in State government rose by 20,000 over the month and has trended up since last summer. Over the same period, employment is down in local government.
"Average hourly earnings for private production or nonsupervisory workers rose by 3 cents in February. Over the 12 months ending in February, hourly earnings increased by 1.6 percent.
"Taking a look at some of the measures obtained from our survey of households, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent in February. The number of unemployed persons also was little changed at about 8.2 million. Both measures are below their recent highs of June 2003. Jobless rates for major worker groups either remained the same or showed little movement over the month.
"The labor force participation rate fell to 65.9 percent in February, reflecting a steep drop-off in the number of men in the labor force. The employment-population ratio was down over the month to 62.2 percent; it held at or near that level for most of 2003.
"The number of persons working part time who would have preferred full-time employment declined over the month to 4.4 million. It had been at about 4.8 million during the last several months.
"Among those not in the labor force, the number of discouraged workers--those who have stopped seeking work because of discouragement over their job prospects--was 484,000 in February, about the same as a year earlier but well above the levels that existed prior to the recent recession.
"In summary, nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in February as the job totals in most industries held steady, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent."
Thursday, March 04, 2004
While rising gas prices can be an inconvenience for most, the unemployed are hardest hit by the fuel price inflation. Gas prices have reached a record high in March reaching as high as almost $3 a gallon in California. It isn't such a stretch to believe that the unemployed actually use their cars more than those currently employed when you consider the travel to and from interviews, labor offices, or from the measly part time jobs for the underemployed.
"The current national average price for unleaded gasoline is $1.72 per gallon, just 3 cents shy of the record set during late August, according to the Energy Information Administration, which is the statistical arm of the Energy Department.
"Tight global supplies of crude oil, a recovering U.S. economy and the looming summer driving season mean that gasoline prices are certain to climb higher during the next few weeks, according to EIA analysts."
That makes those "just paying the bills" jobs for the underemployed almost worthless. These rising gas prices should spotlight the quality of the public transportation system throughout the country. Outside of Chicago, a public transportation Mecca, I can't think of any cities offering a truly effective alternative to driving around in the urban sprawl.
While gas prices have an immediate impact of the struggles of the unemployed, the forecasts for improvements in the labor force remain sketchy at best. Friday offers the first report on the unemployment situation in the U.S. for the past month of February. (By the way, whenever the BLS wishes to update its unemployment figures for January, it would be fine with me!)
"On average, according to Thomson Financial, forecasters expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.6 percent for February as the economy shows an increase of 128,000 payroll jobs. That would be the best result in more than three years but still below the level typically needed to keep up with growth in the labor force."
We'll wait for the report tomorrow, but 128,000 jobs created in February still does nothing to get the Bush administration towards its goal of 2.6 million new jobs in 2004. The scoreboard stands ready to keep the tally up to date. If those figures are correct, Bush is on pace for just over 1.4 million jobs in 2004. Hey, if you're among the 1.4 million, great news, but that still leaves millions of others still unemployed, many of them for more than one year.
Switching to the political side of the unemployment crisis, Michigan and Missouri, two swing states for the general election for president in November, continue to see jobs disappear in manufacturing plants in Hillsdale, MI and Brookfield, MO.
But never fear, the Bush administration is continuing to look for ways to combat the slumping manufacturing sector in the U.S. as evidenced by the recent Time Magazine article on outsourcing and unemployment. Though I don't have a link to offer, I couldn't help but guffaw at the Bush administration's thoughts about counting fast food kitchen jobs not as existing within the service industry, but as manufacturing jobs. You see assembly is required to make those Big Macs and Quarter Pounders.
That would have been a Whopper of an insult to the millions of those who devoted their lives to manufacturing.
"The current national average price for unleaded gasoline is $1.72 per gallon, just 3 cents shy of the record set during late August, according to the Energy Information Administration, which is the statistical arm of the Energy Department.
"Tight global supplies of crude oil, a recovering U.S. economy and the looming summer driving season mean that gasoline prices are certain to climb higher during the next few weeks, according to EIA analysts."
That makes those "just paying the bills" jobs for the underemployed almost worthless. These rising gas prices should spotlight the quality of the public transportation system throughout the country. Outside of Chicago, a public transportation Mecca, I can't think of any cities offering a truly effective alternative to driving around in the urban sprawl.
While gas prices have an immediate impact of the struggles of the unemployed, the forecasts for improvements in the labor force remain sketchy at best. Friday offers the first report on the unemployment situation in the U.S. for the past month of February. (By the way, whenever the BLS wishes to update its unemployment figures for January, it would be fine with me!)
"On average, according to Thomson Financial, forecasters expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.6 percent for February as the economy shows an increase of 128,000 payroll jobs. That would be the best result in more than three years but still below the level typically needed to keep up with growth in the labor force."
We'll wait for the report tomorrow, but 128,000 jobs created in February still does nothing to get the Bush administration towards its goal of 2.6 million new jobs in 2004. The scoreboard stands ready to keep the tally up to date. If those figures are correct, Bush is on pace for just over 1.4 million jobs in 2004. Hey, if you're among the 1.4 million, great news, but that still leaves millions of others still unemployed, many of them for more than one year.
Switching to the political side of the unemployment crisis, Michigan and Missouri, two swing states for the general election for president in November, continue to see jobs disappear in manufacturing plants in Hillsdale, MI and Brookfield, MO.
But never fear, the Bush administration is continuing to look for ways to combat the slumping manufacturing sector in the U.S. as evidenced by the recent Time Magazine article on outsourcing and unemployment. Though I don't have a link to offer, I couldn't help but guffaw at the Bush administration's thoughts about counting fast food kitchen jobs not as existing within the service industry, but as manufacturing jobs. You see assembly is required to make those Big Macs and Quarter Pounders.
That would have been a Whopper of an insult to the millions of those who devoted their lives to manufacturing.
Tuesday, March 02, 2004
For all the content on the impact the unemployment crisis in the U.S. on various industries, locations and demographics, nothing has been hit as hard by the new economy and the jobless recovery as rural America. Small town America has found itself having to bid on industries and companies that wouldn't even garner a whiff of attention from almost the rest of the country. The ideal of the rural landscape used to be acres of farmland spread out as far as the eye can see or a manufacturing plant whose workforce resembled that of a family tree.
Today, rural communities plead for a panoramic view of a correctional facility surrounded by razor wire and watchtowers.
A study on the challenges facing rural America was released today showing families worried most about "work, stable jobs, and a decent income." While this may not be such a departure from the worries of urban families, the recovery, as soon as it begins, will discover small rural communities last, if it discovers them at all.
Below is a summary of the report that focused on rural families in Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee. Honestly, you could have picked any three states from a hat and had similar results. A link to the 62-page PDF is listed above.
Kentucky Youth Advocates has released a comprehensive, yearlong study documenting the challenges facing rural families. The study, The Rural South: Listening to Families in Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee, drew from 12 focus groups and 150 interviews across the three states.
The report found that while Southern rural families are strong, their top challenge is finding jobs that pay enough to raise a family. Rural residents identified work, stable jobs, and a decent income among the greatest concerns they face. On average, wages per job in rural areas of the three states studied were 15 percent less than average wages in the states’ metropolitan areas. According to Valerie Salley, the report's author, "In urban areas, there are numerous employment options, but some rural areas have only a couple of major employers. When one closes its doors, it has a direct impact on large segments of the community."
The report found that both farm and manufacturing jobs have declined since 1990 in rural areas of the three states, while jobs in the service industry have grown. "Rural families are left to vie for low-paying jobs that offer few benefits," said Debra Miller, Executive Director of Kentucky Youth Advocates. "Too many rural families just can't buy homes, afford health insurance, or save for their children’s college education on their wages," said Miller.
Manufacturing jobs have been lost, as plants have moved because of national trade and tax policies, leaving small towns that may never fully recover. According to a focus group participant, "All the big factory jobs are going overseas. Our plants have closed down."
Despite the lack of jobs, rural people continue to feel connected to their communities and frequently commute long distances for work, education, training, and even basic shopping. In nearly a fourth of Kentucky counties, more than 10 percent of workers travel more than one hour to get to work, with the highest rates in eastern Kentucky.
Rural residents also pointed out that the lack of higher paying jobs leads to a "brain drain." One resident said, "Eventually, you know they’re [the children] going to move away. There are no jobs here to support a family. They're not going to live here. That’s it in a nut shell."
The report also documented the link between higher paying jobs and education. The report found that urban residents in Kentucky, Alabama, and Tennessee were more than twice as likely to obtain a bachelor’s degree than their rural counterparts. In over eighty percent of Kentucky counties, most of which are rural, only 10 percent or less of the adult population have attained a bachelor's degree. And, rural residents recognize that that many families and communities are not prepared for the changing economy. "Times are different ... high school will do you no good," said one resident.
Schools and churches are tremendous resources in these communities, but are still unable to meet all needs, residents report. Child care and out-of-school programs are two key supports needed for rural children. Parents worry that without positive activities, children turn to drugs. Their fears are all too real: juvenile drug abuse arrests in rural counties of the three states went up almost 50 percent between 1994 and 2000, but only increased 1 percent in the states' urban areas. Focus groups reported that there are so many drugs in their communities that it is hard for parents to keep their children safe. Among the drugs most cited were oxycontin and methamphetamines.
The report includes recommendations for improving lives of rural families (see page 30 of report). From within rural communities, visionary citizens and leaders can support economic opportunities by nurturing small businesses and reviving main streets. Public policies and investments that support workforce and job development, home ownership and lifelong learning can assist in leveling the playing field for rural families.
Today, rural communities plead for a panoramic view of a correctional facility surrounded by razor wire and watchtowers.
A study on the challenges facing rural America was released today showing families worried most about "work, stable jobs, and a decent income." While this may not be such a departure from the worries of urban families, the recovery, as soon as it begins, will discover small rural communities last, if it discovers them at all.
Below is a summary of the report that focused on rural families in Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee. Honestly, you could have picked any three states from a hat and had similar results. A link to the 62-page PDF is listed above.
Kentucky Youth Advocates has released a comprehensive, yearlong study documenting the challenges facing rural families. The study, The Rural South: Listening to Families in Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee, drew from 12 focus groups and 150 interviews across the three states.
The report found that while Southern rural families are strong, their top challenge is finding jobs that pay enough to raise a family. Rural residents identified work, stable jobs, and a decent income among the greatest concerns they face. On average, wages per job in rural areas of the three states studied were 15 percent less than average wages in the states’ metropolitan areas. According to Valerie Salley, the report's author, "In urban areas, there are numerous employment options, but some rural areas have only a couple of major employers. When one closes its doors, it has a direct impact on large segments of the community."
The report found that both farm and manufacturing jobs have declined since 1990 in rural areas of the three states, while jobs in the service industry have grown. "Rural families are left to vie for low-paying jobs that offer few benefits," said Debra Miller, Executive Director of Kentucky Youth Advocates. "Too many rural families just can't buy homes, afford health insurance, or save for their children’s college education on their wages," said Miller.
Manufacturing jobs have been lost, as plants have moved because of national trade and tax policies, leaving small towns that may never fully recover. According to a focus group participant, "All the big factory jobs are going overseas. Our plants have closed down."
Despite the lack of jobs, rural people continue to feel connected to their communities and frequently commute long distances for work, education, training, and even basic shopping. In nearly a fourth of Kentucky counties, more than 10 percent of workers travel more than one hour to get to work, with the highest rates in eastern Kentucky.
Rural residents also pointed out that the lack of higher paying jobs leads to a "brain drain." One resident said, "Eventually, you know they’re [the children] going to move away. There are no jobs here to support a family. They're not going to live here. That’s it in a nut shell."
The report also documented the link between higher paying jobs and education. The report found that urban residents in Kentucky, Alabama, and Tennessee were more than twice as likely to obtain a bachelor’s degree than their rural counterparts. In over eighty percent of Kentucky counties, most of which are rural, only 10 percent or less of the adult population have attained a bachelor's degree. And, rural residents recognize that that many families and communities are not prepared for the changing economy. "Times are different ... high school will do you no good," said one resident.
Schools and churches are tremendous resources in these communities, but are still unable to meet all needs, residents report. Child care and out-of-school programs are two key supports needed for rural children. Parents worry that without positive activities, children turn to drugs. Their fears are all too real: juvenile drug abuse arrests in rural counties of the three states went up almost 50 percent between 1994 and 2000, but only increased 1 percent in the states' urban areas. Focus groups reported that there are so many drugs in their communities that it is hard for parents to keep their children safe. Among the drugs most cited were oxycontin and methamphetamines.
The report includes recommendations for improving lives of rural families (see page 30 of report). From within rural communities, visionary citizens and leaders can support economic opportunities by nurturing small businesses and reviving main streets. Public policies and investments that support workforce and job development, home ownership and lifelong learning can assist in leveling the playing field for rural families.
