Saturday, February 28, 2004
A press release from The Conference Board on how employment advertising is on an ever so slight job tick upward. However, this weekend I spoke with executives of a leading job site (monster, careerbuilder, hotjobs, it's one of the big three) that the site is not expecting to see a rise in employment advertisements for the entire year.
Anyhow, here is The Conference Board's take on employment advertising.
"The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index – a key barometer of America's job market – edged up one point in January. The Index now stands at 38, up from 37 the previous month. The Index was 41 one year ago.
"In the last three months, help-wanted advertising increased in seven of the nine U.S. regions. The largest increases occurred in the East South Central (14.3%), Mountain (9.3%), and East North Central (6.1%) regions.
"Says Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein: "The economy continues to gain momentum in the first quarter — as indicated by the rise in the Coincident Economic Indicator in January. And the Leading Economic Indicators suggest the trend will carry into the second quarter of 2004. But consumers are starting to get a little more nervous about how much progress the labor market will make, as indicated by the widespread decline in consumer expectations in February. However, with want-ad volume inching higher through January, the signals are that labor market improvement is continuing to slowly develop."
"The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. Because ad volume has proven to be sensitive to labor market conditions, this measure provides a gauge of change in the local, regional and national supply of jobs."
Anyhow, here is The Conference Board's take on employment advertising.
"The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index – a key barometer of America's job market – edged up one point in January. The Index now stands at 38, up from 37 the previous month. The Index was 41 one year ago.
"In the last three months, help-wanted advertising increased in seven of the nine U.S. regions. The largest increases occurred in the East South Central (14.3%), Mountain (9.3%), and East North Central (6.1%) regions.
"Says Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein: "The economy continues to gain momentum in the first quarter — as indicated by the rise in the Coincident Economic Indicator in January. And the Leading Economic Indicators suggest the trend will carry into the second quarter of 2004. But consumers are starting to get a little more nervous about how much progress the labor market will make, as indicated by the widespread decline in consumer expectations in February. However, with want-ad volume inching higher through January, the signals are that labor market improvement is continuing to slowly develop."
"The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. Because ad volume has proven to be sensitive to labor market conditions, this measure provides a gauge of change in the local, regional and national supply of jobs."
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
Some interesting statistics out about how the Hispanic community has made the fastest gains among any group in finding employment during a 12-month span from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2003. In all, the Pew Hispanic Center (PHC) shows the economy generated more than 659,000 jobs for Hispanics. On the surface, it appears the Hispanic community is making great strides in terms of employment and wages, however, the PHC reveals the wages paid to Hispanics do little to improve their condition.
Among the positives:
"The number of employed Hispanics increased by 659,641 workers from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2003. This increase was more than double the increase in employment in the preceding year. Across the same time frame from 2002 to 2003, the number of employed non-Hispanics increased by 371,066."
"The Hispanic unemployment rate showed consistent declines, falling from 8.2 percent in June 2003 to 6.6 percent in December 2003. The proportion of the Hispanic working-age population that is employed also moved up in the latter half of 2003, reaching 63.3 percent in December 2003."
However, a closer examination of the hiring and wage trends begins to shed some light on the downside of the previous figures.
"For much of 2003, the increase in Hispanic employment was driven by males, immigrants, especially those who entered the U.S. since 2000, and construction jobs."
"The number of unemployed Hispanics fell by more than 100,000 between the fourth quarters of 2002 and 2003. However, at least part of the decline in Hispanic unemployment is a consequence of reduced participation in the labor force by Latino workers. The propensity of Hispanics to participate in the labor force is currently at its lowest level since the start of 2000."
"Despite gains in employment and reductions in unemployment, the wages of Hispanic workers were stagnant in 2003."
An unsettling fact for the Hispanic community is that a majority of the "new jobs for Hispanics" are going to the immigrants while American-born Hispanics are still finding employment difficult and wages continually depressed. These figures do not take into account the number of jobs and untraceable wages going to illegal immigrants. The PHC report shows that immigrant employment grew 10 times faster than that of U.S.-born Hispanics. In 2003, Hispanic immigrant employment went up by 680,000 while the U.S.-born Hispanics only saw employment go up by 66,000.
And what impact do you think that has on the wages for the U.S.-born Hispanics who do find employment?
The other troubling fact in the Hispanic job recovery is that an overwhelming amount of it occurred in a single industry, construction. The problem is that the fastest growing ethnic population in the U.S. is not enjoying growth across a variety of other industries, thus limiting opportunities in industries that provide greater opportunities for advancement and higher wages.
The future of the Hispanic workforce is really a numbers game. Can a greater number of Hispanics begin to move into better paying and higher profile positions, and can it happen fast enough to prevent millions from falling into a cycle of chronic unemployment and traditionally low-paying industries? What's needed is for the Hispanic community to begin to create opportunities for itself and continue building upon each success.
Among the positives:
However, a closer examination of the hiring and wage trends begins to shed some light on the downside of the previous figures.
An unsettling fact for the Hispanic community is that a majority of the "new jobs for Hispanics" are going to the immigrants while American-born Hispanics are still finding employment difficult and wages continually depressed. These figures do not take into account the number of jobs and untraceable wages going to illegal immigrants. The PHC report shows that immigrant employment grew 10 times faster than that of U.S.-born Hispanics. In 2003, Hispanic immigrant employment went up by 680,000 while the U.S.-born Hispanics only saw employment go up by 66,000.
And what impact do you think that has on the wages for the U.S.-born Hispanics who do find employment?
The other troubling fact in the Hispanic job recovery is that an overwhelming amount of it occurred in a single industry, construction. The problem is that the fastest growing ethnic population in the U.S. is not enjoying growth across a variety of other industries, thus limiting opportunities in industries that provide greater opportunities for advancement and higher wages.
The future of the Hispanic workforce is really a numbers game. Can a greater number of Hispanics begin to move into better paying and higher profile positions, and can it happen fast enough to prevent millions from falling into a cycle of chronic unemployment and traditionally low-paying industries? What's needed is for the Hispanic community to begin to create opportunities for itself and continue building upon each success.
Sunday, February 22, 2004
Hot headlines from the weekend:
Misstep on jobs figure could haunt Bush This story got me to become innovative this weekend and create the job creation scoreboard you see to your left that will track how the Bush administration is doing towards achieving its published expectation of overseeing the creation of 2.6 million jobs in 2004.
Now, as this story shows, the Bushies are back-tracking from that figure faster than IBM can send jobs to India, but the president had earlier told us to put our trust into all those tax cuts and the strengthening economy Bush keeps speaking about. His team said it would happen, they submitted the report to Congress, so 2.6 million jobs it is. Should the Bushies get a pass on the figure? Well, I've sat in on enough corporate board meetings to know that a final budget with a mistake is still the number you have to hit. The bar has been set, we'll track it here monthly.
2004 Ohio voters' top concern is likely jobs I don't mean to keep hitting you all the time with political stories when it comes to unemployment issues, but that's about all anyone is writing about. Based on the jobless recovery taking place in the U.S., Ohio won't be the only state turning the tide of the 2004 general election based on the issue of jobs. What pleases me so is that this issue has finally taken off as a topic of debate between the two parties vying for the White House. I'm not endorsing a candidate, I'm just thrilled the country is focused back on this chronic unemployment problem.
Fed chief issues warning on jobs issue Hard economic realities are hitting the unemployed hard as economists argue strongly against placing barriers on the previously established free trade agreements and doing anything to implement protectionist measures to save American jobs. Fed chief Alan Greenspan says he understands the troubles of the unemployment crisis, but warns against taking too many steps in stemming the tide of outsourcing. I would say there is probably very little protectionist policies would do to prevent jobs from being exported overseas. The profit margins are too large to be ignored by businesses and certainly won’t be ignored by their investors.
Help Not Wanted Outsourcing has had a great psychological effect on the unemployment crisis as a majority of jobs lost in the U.S. are not due to outsourcing, but Newsweek supports my long-held belief that it is U.S. productivity that has kept a lid on the creation of new jobs. The other culprits have long been recognized in this blog, soaring health care costs and overhiring during the hiring boom in the '90s. It is amazing just how fast the power shifted from the employee in the '90s to the employer today.
No youth will be unemployed in 2005 How good are things going in India? Well, one of the country's chief ministers says the country will produce jobs for its youth by the end of 2005. This is a country with over a billion people in it! The goal is absolutely impossible. However, how many of those jobs are new or imported from somewhere else, say, the U.S.? The war on terrorism and the outsourcing of jobs are shaping up to be the issues that will define the U.S. during this decade.
Misstep on jobs figure could haunt Bush This story got me to become innovative this weekend and create the job creation scoreboard you see to your left that will track how the Bush administration is doing towards achieving its published expectation of overseeing the creation of 2.6 million jobs in 2004.
Now, as this story shows, the Bushies are back-tracking from that figure faster than IBM can send jobs to India, but the president had earlier told us to put our trust into all those tax cuts and the strengthening economy Bush keeps speaking about. His team said it would happen, they submitted the report to Congress, so 2.6 million jobs it is. Should the Bushies get a pass on the figure? Well, I've sat in on enough corporate board meetings to know that a final budget with a mistake is still the number you have to hit. The bar has been set, we'll track it here monthly.
2004 Ohio voters' top concern is likely jobs I don't mean to keep hitting you all the time with political stories when it comes to unemployment issues, but that's about all anyone is writing about. Based on the jobless recovery taking place in the U.S., Ohio won't be the only state turning the tide of the 2004 general election based on the issue of jobs. What pleases me so is that this issue has finally taken off as a topic of debate between the two parties vying for the White House. I'm not endorsing a candidate, I'm just thrilled the country is focused back on this chronic unemployment problem.
Fed chief issues warning on jobs issue Hard economic realities are hitting the unemployed hard as economists argue strongly against placing barriers on the previously established free trade agreements and doing anything to implement protectionist measures to save American jobs. Fed chief Alan Greenspan says he understands the troubles of the unemployment crisis, but warns against taking too many steps in stemming the tide of outsourcing. I would say there is probably very little protectionist policies would do to prevent jobs from being exported overseas. The profit margins are too large to be ignored by businesses and certainly won’t be ignored by their investors.
Help Not Wanted Outsourcing has had a great psychological effect on the unemployment crisis as a majority of jobs lost in the U.S. are not due to outsourcing, but Newsweek supports my long-held belief that it is U.S. productivity that has kept a lid on the creation of new jobs. The other culprits have long been recognized in this blog, soaring health care costs and overhiring during the hiring boom in the '90s. It is amazing just how fast the power shifted from the employee in the '90s to the employer today.
No youth will be unemployed in 2005 How good are things going in India? Well, one of the country's chief ministers says the country will produce jobs for its youth by the end of 2005. This is a country with over a billion people in it! The goal is absolutely impossible. However, how many of those jobs are new or imported from somewhere else, say, the U.S.? The war on terrorism and the outsourcing of jobs are shaping up to be the issues that will define the U.S. during this decade.
Thursday, February 19, 2004
A double whammy of bad news for the unemployed as the White House is backing away from its job growth projections and a survey reveals that a majority of CEOs remain pessimistic on hiring for the rest of the year.
The more jolting of the two stories is the Bush camp all but fessing up that their plans to spark a job recovery isn't getting it done. This admission comes during an election year although wisely at the start of the year to get it out of the way as quickly as possible. However, the frustration felt by the unemployed and the anxiety felt by those still employed shows few signs of waning in time for November.
"While still upbeat, Bush tempered his tone about the prospects for a rebound in the lagging labor market. He would not endorse the specific forecast released last week by Bush's own Council of Economic Advisers, instead saying he was pleased with the creation of 366,000 new jobs since last summer."
That prediction was the Bush administration would oversee a job creation explosion of 2.6 million jobs in 2004. Currently, Bush is on pace to fall far short of that goal.
Many may see this trend as good news in that it seriously affects the president's chances of re-election, but that would be incredibly shortsighted. For almost three years, the unemployed have swelled in numbers and their prospects for finding employment have changed little. Forget about politics, this information has a devastating effect on thousands of people's lives. Does anyone really believe the unemployed can wait another 16 to 24 months for a new chief to begin turning things around? I pick 16 months because we still have another 11 months before the start of another presidential term and one should expect some time to pass before anyone can begin to see any impact from the policies of a new president. However, even 16 months is being awfully ambitious if there were a change in the Oval Office.
Apart from politics, the real decisions on a job recovery take place in the boardrooms of America's biggest companies and it is there that the unemployed continue to find no solace. In a poll of 70 CEOs by the Business Council, "just 31 percent plan to increase their own hiring pace in 2004, although that is more than twice the 14 percent who said so in October.
"Forty percent plan to increase U.S. hiring, after 27 percent reported increases in 2003. Just 19 percent plan to reduce hiring inside the United States. Fifty-four percent reported shifting U.S. jobs outside the country in the past year."
There's quite a mix of numbers there, but overall, a majority of CEOs are not planning to increase their workforce and report moving U.S. jobs overseas. Granted, the numbers are better than 2003, but it is still not enough to begin feeling optimistic. Going beyond the hiring numbers, there remains little incentive for CEOs to fatten the payrolls as productivity and profits continue to grow.
"The CEOs overwhelmingly expect U.S. stocks to rise again in 2004, fueled partly by rising corporate profitability. Eighty-six percent expect major stock market indexes to rise, most likely modestly, while only 2 percent expect declines. Nearly two-thirds of the CEOs said they expect profit at their companies to be higher this year than in 2003, while 10 percent expect declines. Most also expect higher sales."
Here's the rub on the profit projections, historically, a company with greater profits would invest some of that money back into the company for the sake of growth and market share. This is the model that leads economists to predict greater job growth in the coming months. There's one big difference in how businesses use their profits today. Yes, investors still get their share of the money, but instead of using the rest of the profits to grow the business, companies see mergers and acquisitions are the most effective way to use that money.
The flaws for the unemployed are mergers and acquisitions often result in layoffs, early retirements and the elimination of open positions. The mantra in today's business is to grow fast or die. You don't build anymore, you buy. The Cingular deal for AT&T Wireless is another example of one consuming the other in order to grow faster and feed investor's appetites.
What is incredibly galling is how out in the open the Bush administration is about this investor first, worker last mentality. Even the Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, of all people, can't keep the administration’s true intentions from stumbling out of her mouth.
From the N.Y. Times: When the labor secretary, Elaine Chao, was questioned on CNN about the disappointing jobs report for January (112,000 jobs were created when 150,000 had been anticipated), she said: "Well, the stock market is, after all, the final arbiter. And the stock market was very strong this morning in reaction to the news that we have just received."
Yet again, another candidate for dumbest comment of the year when it comes to the topic of unemployment.
Times columnist Bob Herbert says the jobless recovery and Bush's rosy proclamations about the economy are another cause for the rising credibility gap the president faces with the public. However, when everyone has been so willing to let so many of Bush's other spin jobs go off without question (No Child Left Behind, Healthy Forests, Medicare Reform, the Patriot Act) why should the president and his men have expected anyone to call him on this bluff?
(As an aside, I've been enjoying all this attention to credibility issues. While the topic has certainly centered on Bush, I find it amusing how the unions have been given a pass on their credibility in backing a candidate for president who has always voted in favor of free trade agreements the unions fought so hard to prevent. Unions, what a joke they've become.)
The lone bright spot to all the week's news was the jobless claims story showing a sharp decline in the number of claims submitted last week. I read something more into this than the average person. I see this as a bright spot in that for the first time in months, months I tell you, the media wasn't tripping over themselves to use this information as an indicator of just how fast the economy is coming back! I couldn't believe it. The media was actually showing some restraint after having used each previous weekly jobs claims report as the sole indicator of whether or not a job recovery was here to stay.
Talk about your credibility gaps.
The more jolting of the two stories is the Bush camp all but fessing up that their plans to spark a job recovery isn't getting it done. This admission comes during an election year although wisely at the start of the year to get it out of the way as quickly as possible. However, the frustration felt by the unemployed and the anxiety felt by those still employed shows few signs of waning in time for November.
"While still upbeat, Bush tempered his tone about the prospects for a rebound in the lagging labor market. He would not endorse the specific forecast released last week by Bush's own Council of Economic Advisers, instead saying he was pleased with the creation of 366,000 new jobs since last summer."
That prediction was the Bush administration would oversee a job creation explosion of 2.6 million jobs in 2004. Currently, Bush is on pace to fall far short of that goal.
Many may see this trend as good news in that it seriously affects the president's chances of re-election, but that would be incredibly shortsighted. For almost three years, the unemployed have swelled in numbers and their prospects for finding employment have changed little. Forget about politics, this information has a devastating effect on thousands of people's lives. Does anyone really believe the unemployed can wait another 16 to 24 months for a new chief to begin turning things around? I pick 16 months because we still have another 11 months before the start of another presidential term and one should expect some time to pass before anyone can begin to see any impact from the policies of a new president. However, even 16 months is being awfully ambitious if there were a change in the Oval Office.
Apart from politics, the real decisions on a job recovery take place in the boardrooms of America's biggest companies and it is there that the unemployed continue to find no solace. In a poll of 70 CEOs by the Business Council, "just 31 percent plan to increase their own hiring pace in 2004, although that is more than twice the 14 percent who said so in October.
"Forty percent plan to increase U.S. hiring, after 27 percent reported increases in 2003. Just 19 percent plan to reduce hiring inside the United States. Fifty-four percent reported shifting U.S. jobs outside the country in the past year."
There's quite a mix of numbers there, but overall, a majority of CEOs are not planning to increase their workforce and report moving U.S. jobs overseas. Granted, the numbers are better than 2003, but it is still not enough to begin feeling optimistic. Going beyond the hiring numbers, there remains little incentive for CEOs to fatten the payrolls as productivity and profits continue to grow.
"The CEOs overwhelmingly expect U.S. stocks to rise again in 2004, fueled partly by rising corporate profitability. Eighty-six percent expect major stock market indexes to rise, most likely modestly, while only 2 percent expect declines. Nearly two-thirds of the CEOs said they expect profit at their companies to be higher this year than in 2003, while 10 percent expect declines. Most also expect higher sales."
Here's the rub on the profit projections, historically, a company with greater profits would invest some of that money back into the company for the sake of growth and market share. This is the model that leads economists to predict greater job growth in the coming months. There's one big difference in how businesses use their profits today. Yes, investors still get their share of the money, but instead of using the rest of the profits to grow the business, companies see mergers and acquisitions are the most effective way to use that money.
The flaws for the unemployed are mergers and acquisitions often result in layoffs, early retirements and the elimination of open positions. The mantra in today's business is to grow fast or die. You don't build anymore, you buy. The Cingular deal for AT&T Wireless is another example of one consuming the other in order to grow faster and feed investor's appetites.
What is incredibly galling is how out in the open the Bush administration is about this investor first, worker last mentality. Even the Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, of all people, can't keep the administration’s true intentions from stumbling out of her mouth.
From the N.Y. Times: When the labor secretary, Elaine Chao, was questioned on CNN about the disappointing jobs report for January (112,000 jobs were created when 150,000 had been anticipated), she said: "Well, the stock market is, after all, the final arbiter. And the stock market was very strong this morning in reaction to the news that we have just received."
Yet again, another candidate for dumbest comment of the year when it comes to the topic of unemployment.
Times columnist Bob Herbert says the jobless recovery and Bush's rosy proclamations about the economy are another cause for the rising credibility gap the president faces with the public. However, when everyone has been so willing to let so many of Bush's other spin jobs go off without question (No Child Left Behind, Healthy Forests, Medicare Reform, the Patriot Act) why should the president and his men have expected anyone to call him on this bluff?
(As an aside, I've been enjoying all this attention to credibility issues. While the topic has certainly centered on Bush, I find it amusing how the unions have been given a pass on their credibility in backing a candidate for president who has always voted in favor of free trade agreements the unions fought so hard to prevent. Unions, what a joke they've become.)
The lone bright spot to all the week's news was the jobless claims story showing a sharp decline in the number of claims submitted last week. I read something more into this than the average person. I see this as a bright spot in that for the first time in months, months I tell you, the media wasn't tripping over themselves to use this information as an indicator of just how fast the economy is coming back! I couldn't believe it. The media was actually showing some restraint after having used each previous weekly jobs claims report as the sole indicator of whether or not a job recovery was here to stay.
Talk about your credibility gaps.
Tuesday, February 17, 2004
As has been the case for during the last two years, more tech jobs are on their way out of the U.S., or as White House chief economic adviser Greg Mankiw might say, a victory parade for the future of the U.S. economy.
"The German firm Siemens will move most of the 15,000 software programming jobs from its offices in the United States and Western Europe to India, China and Eastern Europe.
"Siemens has recognized that a huge amount of software development activity needs to be moved from high-cost countries to low-cost countries," said Anil R. Laud, managing director of Siemens Information Systems, the group's information technology subsidiary in India.
Mankiw would point out that this day will be looked back on as yet another great day in U.S. labor history, say, oh, five to eight years from now. In the meantime, it's more of the same as talented, college educated, hard working Americans belly up to the bar with their pink slips clutched tightly in their hands.
One of the interesting parts of the Siemens story is that the company says all those "low cost countries" will have to fight among themselves to keep their share of the work. Wal-Mart practices that same tactics when dealing with its Chinese manufacturers.
While there are plenty of theories on the impact outsourcing is having on the U.S. economy, the following makes the case that you can't blame India for all the problems that exist in the U.S. labor market.
"Threats to the U.S. economy probably lie elsewhere -- in ballooning and unprecedented budget deficits, in a dollar that is cascading in world markets, in creeping doubts abroad about its long-term financial credibility -- and not in the shift of a few high-tech jobs abroad.
"Meanwhile, outsourcing by U.S. companies helps a poor country like India skip a few steps on its way up the development ladder."
That's a trade-off I'd bet few Americans would be willing to accept. Nothing against an ally like India, but the U.S. has always led by example instead of letting developing countries lead the unemployed by the nose down to their levels.
"The German firm Siemens will move most of the 15,000 software programming jobs from its offices in the United States and Western Europe to India, China and Eastern Europe.
"Siemens has recognized that a huge amount of software development activity needs to be moved from high-cost countries to low-cost countries," said Anil R. Laud, managing director of Siemens Information Systems, the group's information technology subsidiary in India.
Mankiw would point out that this day will be looked back on as yet another great day in U.S. labor history, say, oh, five to eight years from now. In the meantime, it's more of the same as talented, college educated, hard working Americans belly up to the bar with their pink slips clutched tightly in their hands.
One of the interesting parts of the Siemens story is that the company says all those "low cost countries" will have to fight among themselves to keep their share of the work. Wal-Mart practices that same tactics when dealing with its Chinese manufacturers.
While there are plenty of theories on the impact outsourcing is having on the U.S. economy, the following makes the case that you can't blame India for all the problems that exist in the U.S. labor market.
"Threats to the U.S. economy probably lie elsewhere -- in ballooning and unprecedented budget deficits, in a dollar that is cascading in world markets, in creeping doubts abroad about its long-term financial credibility -- and not in the shift of a few high-tech jobs abroad.
"Meanwhile, outsourcing by U.S. companies helps a poor country like India skip a few steps on its way up the development ladder."
That's a trade-off I'd bet few Americans would be willing to accept. Nothing against an ally like India, but the U.S. has always led by example instead of letting developing countries lead the unemployed by the nose down to their levels.
Sunday, February 15, 2004
Hot headlines from the weekend:
White House job comments touch a nerve White House chief economic adviser Greg Mankiw blurted out this week that "outsourcing is a growing phenomenon, but it's something that we should realize is probably a plus for the economy in the long run." Everyone jumped on this comment as insensitive and shortsighted. However, many an economist would agree with the statement.
The long held theory is that jobs going overseas actually encourages U.S. companies to become more innovative thus expanding its current workforce with higher paying jobs for the new greater skill sets found only here in the U.S. This sounds like something that made more sense when talking about a U.S. economy dependent upon a manufacturing, not technology. However, our future growth seems to be heading towards growth in the service industries that pay far less on average than either manufacturing or technology.
Where more jobs will be I didn't mean to give away this story so soon, but yes, as stated above, the growth in jobs in 2004 and beyond are projected to come from service industries. Among the top ten largest growing occupations in the next ten years are stunning opportunities and positions such as retail sales, food prep, food service, customer service, cashiers, janitors and nurse's aides.
On the plus side, nursing, teaching and general managing opportunities are also expected to show strong growth. Too bad only one of the three isn't experiencing a dire shortage of workers today.
Don't tell anyone, but the CIA has great jobs
There's a man who leads a life of danger.
To everyone he meets he stays a stranger.
With every move he makes,
Another chance he takes.
Odds are he won't live to see tomorrow.
(But at least his family would still have two week's salary and a pension coming their way!)
Secret … A-a-a-gent Man!
Furniture industry's future in N.C. fading Here's another knock against the "job-training will save everyone" theory. What do you do when all your family, friends and neighbors know only one industry, one job, and one way of life. The furniture manufacturing business has a long history in North Carolina like coal and steel in other parts of the country. When an entire city, county and region has depended upon one way of life for so long, you can't surely expect everyone to pick up and excel in various other forms of employment. There is something to be said for the impact of a people's culture and history, even in regards to employment.
Ohio town recovers after learning free trade lesson hard way For some communities, a single employer can make the difference between boomtown to ghost town. Just ask the people in Bentonville, Arkansas. Today's global economy demands small towns do their best to keep their interests as diverse as possible, just like a trusty stock portfolio.
Cheers to Celina, Ohio where city leaders learned how to think proactively and recover when the local Huffy bicycle plant peddled out of town. Using a three-step plan, the town quickly saw three other companies arrive or expand.
Now that's political leadership. Take the necessary steps in anticipation of, not in reaction to.
White House job comments touch a nerve White House chief economic adviser Greg Mankiw blurted out this week that "outsourcing is a growing phenomenon, but it's something that we should realize is probably a plus for the economy in the long run." Everyone jumped on this comment as insensitive and shortsighted. However, many an economist would agree with the statement.
The long held theory is that jobs going overseas actually encourages U.S. companies to become more innovative thus expanding its current workforce with higher paying jobs for the new greater skill sets found only here in the U.S. This sounds like something that made more sense when talking about a U.S. economy dependent upon a manufacturing, not technology. However, our future growth seems to be heading towards growth in the service industries that pay far less on average than either manufacturing or technology.
Where more jobs will be I didn't mean to give away this story so soon, but yes, as stated above, the growth in jobs in 2004 and beyond are projected to come from service industries. Among the top ten largest growing occupations in the next ten years are stunning opportunities and positions such as retail sales, food prep, food service, customer service, cashiers, janitors and nurse's aides.
On the plus side, nursing, teaching and general managing opportunities are also expected to show strong growth. Too bad only one of the three isn't experiencing a dire shortage of workers today.
Don't tell anyone, but the CIA has great jobs
There's a man who leads a life of danger.
To everyone he meets he stays a stranger.
With every move he makes,
Another chance he takes.
Odds are he won't live to see tomorrow.
(But at least his family would still have two week's salary and a pension coming their way!)
Secret … A-a-a-gent Man!
Furniture industry's future in N.C. fading Here's another knock against the "job-training will save everyone" theory. What do you do when all your family, friends and neighbors know only one industry, one job, and one way of life. The furniture manufacturing business has a long history in North Carolina like coal and steel in other parts of the country. When an entire city, county and region has depended upon one way of life for so long, you can't surely expect everyone to pick up and excel in various other forms of employment. There is something to be said for the impact of a people's culture and history, even in regards to employment.
Ohio town recovers after learning free trade lesson hard way For some communities, a single employer can make the difference between boomtown to ghost town. Just ask the people in Bentonville, Arkansas. Today's global economy demands small towns do their best to keep their interests as diverse as possible, just like a trusty stock portfolio.
Cheers to Celina, Ohio where city leaders learned how to think proactively and recover when the local Huffy bicycle plant peddled out of town. Using a three-step plan, the town quickly saw three other companies arrive or expand.
Now that's political leadership. Take the necessary steps in anticipation of, not in reaction to.
Thursday, February 12, 2004
As was the case before the 2000 election, my overwhelming belief about the 2004 election was that President Bush stood little chance of being defeated. It's not that the president has accomplished much beyond winning two wars that held no threat of this country losing and taking the fight to the terrorists which was a move any president would have made under the same set of circumstances.
Was there anyone in this country not ready to go to war on Sept. 11, 2001?
Bush was going to ride this wave of patriotism all the way through November despite his deplorable record concerning the number of jobs lost during his administration. Somehow, this country was going to have to plow ahead with an additional four years of a president either uncaring or completely clueless to the struggles of the unemployed.
Recently, however, a light finally turned on and the issues of unemployment and the jobless recovery began to rise to the top of everyone's consciousness and the proper focus finally started to take shape over the issues. As Iraq began to turn the corner towards some semblance of normalcy, people began paying attention to the employment carnage throughout the U.S., and they don't like what they saw, heard and knew. American's personal safety may have improved, but very few people feel as if they are not under a constant threat of either losing a job or being unable to find one for a long time.
Today, Bush announced that job creation in the U.S. is now a top priority before a group of school kids and assembled reporters.
"There are still some people looking for work because of the recession," Bush told a crowd at Central Dauphin High School. "There are people looking for work because jobs have gone overseas, and we need to act in this country. We need to act to make sure there are more jobs at home and people are more likely to retain a job."
There are still some people, yeah, just like the federal government is some billions of dollars in deficit.
I don't know if these high school kids understood it or not, but Bush was going back to his old tricks. No, I don't mean the tricks of saying one thing and doing another, as he has done with education and the environment, no, this goes back to Bush's days as a high school and college student when he realized he screwed around too long with school and it was time to buck up and put forth enough of an effort to squeak by with his grades in time for graduation.
The Bush camp is sharp, they wouldn't dare let him roll that top priority line out in front of adults for fear of a gallery of boos and hisses from the crowd. However, in front of high school kids more thrilled to be out of class than to be treated to an audience with the president, Bush can say it with the confidence of knowing he won't have to defend such a comment.
Thank goodness though the rest of America is finally catching on and is beginning to question the words and actions of an administration that's been enjoying its hall pass ever since Sept. 11.
"A majority of Americans believe President Bush either lied or deliberately exaggerated evidence that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction in order to justify war, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
"The survey results, which also show declining support for the war in Iraq and for Bush's leadership in general, indicate the public is increasingly questioning the president's truthfulness -- a concern for Bush's political advisers as his reelection bid gets underway."
First off, it is the duty of the citizens of this country to question the decisions of its leaders, especially its president. I don't know how much of this has to do with people not believing in the President as it does with Americans being fed up with the notion this administration has pushed that it is somehow unpatriotic to doubt the president.
As equally unsettling is just how out of touch Bush is with the people. He is just NOW going to make jobs a top priority. Forget the previous three years; something needs to be done now that he faces losing his own job.
Finally, there's one great omission from the jobs story that shouldn't be ignored. Isn't Bush saying he's making jobs a top priority actually a back-handed admission that his tax cuts didn't do squat to improve the jobless recovery?
This is what Bush said would happen; billions in tax cuts, millions of jobs. But, it didn't happen; not then, not now (as jobless claims went up again last week) and there are few signs of it happening in the near future.
Despite my rant, I still do believe Bush will be the winner of the general election in November. But, you people are finally beginning to make me question that belief.
Was there anyone in this country not ready to go to war on Sept. 11, 2001?
Bush was going to ride this wave of patriotism all the way through November despite his deplorable record concerning the number of jobs lost during his administration. Somehow, this country was going to have to plow ahead with an additional four years of a president either uncaring or completely clueless to the struggles of the unemployed.
Recently, however, a light finally turned on and the issues of unemployment and the jobless recovery began to rise to the top of everyone's consciousness and the proper focus finally started to take shape over the issues. As Iraq began to turn the corner towards some semblance of normalcy, people began paying attention to the employment carnage throughout the U.S., and they don't like what they saw, heard and knew. American's personal safety may have improved, but very few people feel as if they are not under a constant threat of either losing a job or being unable to find one for a long time.
Today, Bush announced that job creation in the U.S. is now a top priority before a group of school kids and assembled reporters.
"There are still some people looking for work because of the recession," Bush told a crowd at Central Dauphin High School. "There are people looking for work because jobs have gone overseas, and we need to act in this country. We need to act to make sure there are more jobs at home and people are more likely to retain a job."
There are still some people, yeah, just like the federal government is some billions of dollars in deficit.
I don't know if these high school kids understood it or not, but Bush was going back to his old tricks. No, I don't mean the tricks of saying one thing and doing another, as he has done with education and the environment, no, this goes back to Bush's days as a high school and college student when he realized he screwed around too long with school and it was time to buck up and put forth enough of an effort to squeak by with his grades in time for graduation.
The Bush camp is sharp, they wouldn't dare let him roll that top priority line out in front of adults for fear of a gallery of boos and hisses from the crowd. However, in front of high school kids more thrilled to be out of class than to be treated to an audience with the president, Bush can say it with the confidence of knowing he won't have to defend such a comment.
Thank goodness though the rest of America is finally catching on and is beginning to question the words and actions of an administration that's been enjoying its hall pass ever since Sept. 11.
"A majority of Americans believe President Bush either lied or deliberately exaggerated evidence that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction in order to justify war, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
"The survey results, which also show declining support for the war in Iraq and for Bush's leadership in general, indicate the public is increasingly questioning the president's truthfulness -- a concern for Bush's political advisers as his reelection bid gets underway."
First off, it is the duty of the citizens of this country to question the decisions of its leaders, especially its president. I don't know how much of this has to do with people not believing in the President as it does with Americans being fed up with the notion this administration has pushed that it is somehow unpatriotic to doubt the president.
As equally unsettling is just how out of touch Bush is with the people. He is just NOW going to make jobs a top priority. Forget the previous three years; something needs to be done now that he faces losing his own job.
Finally, there's one great omission from the jobs story that shouldn't be ignored. Isn't Bush saying he's making jobs a top priority actually a back-handed admission that his tax cuts didn't do squat to improve the jobless recovery?
This is what Bush said would happen; billions in tax cuts, millions of jobs. But, it didn't happen; not then, not now (as jobless claims went up again last week) and there are few signs of it happening in the near future.
Despite my rant, I still do believe Bush will be the winner of the general election in November. But, you people are finally beginning to make me question that belief.
Tuesday, February 10, 2004
Some chilling words come from the latest edition of Across the Board, a publication produced by The Conference Board. The group is normally conservative, but excerpts from the story below are not what conservatives or liberals will find reassuring for the future of the U.S. economy and workforce.
"America must act quickly to stave off the exodus of white-collar jobs to foreign countries, according to an article in the latest issue of Across the Board, The Conference Board’s bimonthly magazine. The Conference Board is a leading not-for-profit business research and membership organization.
"For corporate America as a whole, if CEOs needed any more incentive to pay more attention to long-range planning and encourage entrepreneurial thinking within organizations, the offshoring trend should provide a convincing kick in the pants," says Matthew Budman, managing editor of Across The Board and author of the article, which quotes a variety of management experts.
Management Guru Tom Peters is not especially optimistic about what choices U.S. companies will make or even about the prospects for those companies’ survival. Peters says: "I think we’re entering a 50-, 60-, 70-, 80-year period of instability, where I can well imagine the great American economy being surpassed by the Chinese or the Indians. The certainty is gone, which suggests that workers don’t have that long to screw around. You’ve got to figure out what you have to sell in a global economy—and then sell the hell out of it."
Christopher Meyer, former director of the Center for Business Innovation, says that workers must stress distinctiveness over superiority. "Either U.S. income will fall to the level of those in other countries who have the same skills, or we have to have different skills. The loss of manufacturing jobs is just another chapter of technological progress in our economy. [It is] part of a long-term trend of manufacturing jobs leaving this economy—and we should applaud it."
"Meyer points out that a country advances by replacing lower-level jobs with higher value-added jobs."
Dow Chemical’s Andy Hines, the chairman of the Association of Professional Futurists, says: "If we stand still, there will be up-and-coming economies that will take the things that we’re doing now . . . Knowledge workers can lose too—if they stay at the same skill level as somebody in India . . . If you’re going up against a European-headquartered company, your only value-add is going to be creative, innovative, and forward-looking."
Top executives in particular face broader issues than their own careers and are at greater risk than front-line white-collar workers of losing their place in the next economy. Budman says: "If all the positions you used to supervise are 8,000 miles away, and your salary is now thousands of times higher than theirs, you’re affordable only if you can offer something truly extraordinary."
The key to success today and the future depends on your unique abilities and your willingness to be a self-promoter. It is never enough to assume anyone is going to take care of you or take notice of your efforts and talents, you've got to make sure that people know the value you bring to the company. Otherwise, you are no more than another piece of equipment that has its clock ticking towards a trip to the dumpster.
The U.S. may have won the Cold War, but the economic wars are beginning to turn this country on its head with all its loose change falling out of its pockets. How ironic that it is the companies headquartered in the U.S. who are supplying the foreign markets with the tools to supplant the U.S. as the top economic power in the world.
"America must act quickly to stave off the exodus of white-collar jobs to foreign countries, according to an article in the latest issue of Across the Board, The Conference Board’s bimonthly magazine. The Conference Board is a leading not-for-profit business research and membership organization.
"For corporate America as a whole, if CEOs needed any more incentive to pay more attention to long-range planning and encourage entrepreneurial thinking within organizations, the offshoring trend should provide a convincing kick in the pants," says Matthew Budman, managing editor of Across The Board and author of the article, which quotes a variety of management experts.
"Meyer points out that a country advances by replacing lower-level jobs with higher value-added jobs."
The key to success today and the future depends on your unique abilities and your willingness to be a self-promoter. It is never enough to assume anyone is going to take care of you or take notice of your efforts and talents, you've got to make sure that people know the value you bring to the company. Otherwise, you are no more than another piece of equipment that has its clock ticking towards a trip to the dumpster.
The U.S. may have won the Cold War, but the economic wars are beginning to turn this country on its head with all its loose change falling out of its pockets. How ironic that it is the companies headquartered in the U.S. who are supplying the foreign markets with the tools to supplant the U.S. as the top economic power in the world.
Monday, February 09, 2004
For those of you who have missed the hot headlines from the weekend, they're listed just below. For those of you who missed President Bush on Meet the Press, here's the portion of the interview that focused on the unemployment situation and the national economy.
Meet the Press host Tim Russert: The Bush Cheney first three years, the unemployment rate has gone up 33 percent, there has been a loss of 2.2 million jobs. We've gone from a $281 billion surplus to a $521 billion deficit. The debt has gone from 5.7 trillion, to $7 trillion up 23 percent.
Based on that record, why should the American people rehire you as CEO?
President Bush: Sure, because I have been the President during a time of tremendous stress on our economy and made the decisions necessary to lead that would enhance recovery. We’ll review the bidding here. The stock market started to decline in March of 2000. That was the first sign that things were troubled. The recession started upon my arrival. It could have been some say February, some say March, some speculate maybe earlier it started, but nevertheless it happened as we showed up here.
The attacks on our country affected our economy. Corporate scandals affected the confidence of people and therefore affected the economy. My decision on Iraq, this kind of march to war, affected the economy, but we have been through a lot. And what those numbers show is the fact we have been through a lot.
But what the people must understand is that instead of wondering what to do, I acted, and I acted by cutting the taxes on individuals and small businesses, primarily. And that, itself, has led to this recovery.
So, you show that the numbers kind of I'm not suggesting the chart only shows the bad numbers, but how about the fact that we are now increasing jobs or the fact that unemployment is now down to 5.6 percent? There was a winter recession and unemployment went up, and now it's heading in the right direction.
The economic stimulus plan that I passed, or I asked the Congress to pass, and I worked with Congress to pass, is making a big difference.
Russert: But when you proposed your first tax cut in 2001, you said this was going to generate 800,000 new jobs. Your tax cut of 2003, create a million new jobs. That has not happened.
President Bush: Well, it's happening. It's happening. And there is good momentum when it comes to the creation of new jobs.
Again, we have been through a lot. This economy has been through a lot, which is why I'm so optimistic about the future because I know what we have been through.
And I look forward to debate on the economy because I think one of those things that's very important is that the entrepreneurial spirit of this country be strong and the small business sector be strong. And the policies I have laid out enhance entrepreneurship, they encourage small business creation, and I think this economy is coming around just right, frankly.
Meet the Press host Tim Russert: The Bush Cheney first three years, the unemployment rate has gone up 33 percent, there has been a loss of 2.2 million jobs. We've gone from a $281 billion surplus to a $521 billion deficit. The debt has gone from 5.7 trillion, to $7 trillion up 23 percent.
Based on that record, why should the American people rehire you as CEO?
President Bush: Sure, because I have been the President during a time of tremendous stress on our economy and made the decisions necessary to lead that would enhance recovery. We’ll review the bidding here. The stock market started to decline in March of 2000. That was the first sign that things were troubled. The recession started upon my arrival. It could have been some say February, some say March, some speculate maybe earlier it started, but nevertheless it happened as we showed up here.
The attacks on our country affected our economy. Corporate scandals affected the confidence of people and therefore affected the economy. My decision on Iraq, this kind of march to war, affected the economy, but we have been through a lot. And what those numbers show is the fact we have been through a lot.
But what the people must understand is that instead of wondering what to do, I acted, and I acted by cutting the taxes on individuals and small businesses, primarily. And that, itself, has led to this recovery.
So, you show that the numbers kind of I'm not suggesting the chart only shows the bad numbers, but how about the fact that we are now increasing jobs or the fact that unemployment is now down to 5.6 percent? There was a winter recession and unemployment went up, and now it's heading in the right direction.
The economic stimulus plan that I passed, or I asked the Congress to pass, and I worked with Congress to pass, is making a big difference.
Russert: But when you proposed your first tax cut in 2001, you said this was going to generate 800,000 new jobs. Your tax cut of 2003, create a million new jobs. That has not happened.
President Bush: Well, it's happening. It's happening. And there is good momentum when it comes to the creation of new jobs.
Again, we have been through a lot. This economy has been through a lot, which is why I'm so optimistic about the future because I know what we have been through.
And I look forward to debate on the economy because I think one of those things that's very important is that the entrepreneurial spirit of this country be strong and the small business sector be strong. And the policies I have laid out enhance entrepreneurship, they encourage small business creation, and I think this economy is coming around just right, frankly.
Sunday, February 08, 2004
Hot headlines from the weekend:
In GOP Country, Job Fears As long as everyone keeps jumping on the John Kerry bandwagon, I thought I would kick this off with some politics. It seems as if some Republican governors are feeling their collars getting a little tight when the subjects of jobs and the Bush re-election campaign come up together. I've said forever this is the issue that potentially brings Bush down in November, but everyone keeps revisiting Iraq. Even the GOP knows the dangers of the jobless recovery, why can't Democrats figure that out?
Unemployment lowest since late '01, but hiring slow Will everyone please get off of this unemployment rate story and look closer at the real reason the rate keeps dropping? The numbers of jobs being created are not rising faster than the numbers of people dropping off the unemployment rolls because they've exhausted their benefits. Refer to my entry on Wednesday Feb. 4 for the whole story, not just a quick glance at the national unemployment rate.
Violence thrives on lack of jobs, wealth of drugs When frustrated young men and women can't find work, they sometimes go into business for themselves resulting in higher crime rates. While it is often easy to make the excuse that this is something unique to the poor inner cities of the U.S., I have the facts stating otherwise. Unemployment throughout the world creates all types of social ills. While some kids unable to find work in New Orleans may turn to selling drugs, kids in the Middle East sometimes turn to becoming suicide bombers, or worse, temporary airline pilots.
Chinese workers pay for Wal-Mart's low prices The story is so well done, but no one should forget that there are still plenty of American workers and businesses that are also paying for Wal-Mart's low prices. The most interesting line in the story is how Wal-Mart's demands for low prices from these overseas manufacturing plants makes them even more attractive to other U.S. companies.
Speaking of which, the next time Bush actually does another Q & A with the press, could someone ask him if all these new jobs he keeps speaking about are really created in the U.S. or are those jobs created by American companies in other countries? It's all in the details, baby!
As tech jobs go offshore, Teamsters device new strategies I can only offer this story up for amusement. I just like the idea of techies and truckers gathering in the same smoke-filled union hall for a rally.
I'm sure Teamsters just love the idea of locking arms with the same type of people who developed those software programs that tracked their rigs every move from point A to point B. These crowds have no chance to co-exist.
In GOP Country, Job Fears As long as everyone keeps jumping on the John Kerry bandwagon, I thought I would kick this off with some politics. It seems as if some Republican governors are feeling their collars getting a little tight when the subjects of jobs and the Bush re-election campaign come up together. I've said forever this is the issue that potentially brings Bush down in November, but everyone keeps revisiting Iraq. Even the GOP knows the dangers of the jobless recovery, why can't Democrats figure that out?
Unemployment lowest since late '01, but hiring slow Will everyone please get off of this unemployment rate story and look closer at the real reason the rate keeps dropping? The numbers of jobs being created are not rising faster than the numbers of people dropping off the unemployment rolls because they've exhausted their benefits. Refer to my entry on Wednesday Feb. 4 for the whole story, not just a quick glance at the national unemployment rate.
Violence thrives on lack of jobs, wealth of drugs When frustrated young men and women can't find work, they sometimes go into business for themselves resulting in higher crime rates. While it is often easy to make the excuse that this is something unique to the poor inner cities of the U.S., I have the facts stating otherwise. Unemployment throughout the world creates all types of social ills. While some kids unable to find work in New Orleans may turn to selling drugs, kids in the Middle East sometimes turn to becoming suicide bombers, or worse, temporary airline pilots.
Chinese workers pay for Wal-Mart's low prices The story is so well done, but no one should forget that there are still plenty of American workers and businesses that are also paying for Wal-Mart's low prices. The most interesting line in the story is how Wal-Mart's demands for low prices from these overseas manufacturing plants makes them even more attractive to other U.S. companies.
Speaking of which, the next time Bush actually does another Q & A with the press, could someone ask him if all these new jobs he keeps speaking about are really created in the U.S. or are those jobs created by American companies in other countries? It's all in the details, baby!
As tech jobs go offshore, Teamsters device new strategies I can only offer this story up for amusement. I just like the idea of techies and truckers gathering in the same smoke-filled union hall for a rally.
I'm sure Teamsters just love the idea of locking arms with the same type of people who developed those software programs that tracked their rigs every move from point A to point B. These crowds have no chance to co-exist.
Friday, February 06, 2004
This morning's statement of the national employment situation from Kathleen P. Utgoff, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
"Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 112,000 in January and has risen by 366,000 since August 2003. In January, there were job gains in construction and several service-providing industries. While manufacturing employment continued to trend down, the rate of job loss has slowed considerably in recent months. The unemployment rate, at 5.6 percent, was little changed over the month but is down from its recent peak of 6.3 percent in June 2003.
"Within the goods-producing sector, construction employment was up by 24,000 in January, after seasonal adjustment. Construction employment continues to be buoyed by strength in the housing market. Since March, the industry has added 147,000 jobs.
"Manufacturing employment edged down in January (-11,000). From September through January, manufacturing job losses have averaged 20,000 a month, compared with an average decline of 62,000 for the first eight months of 2003. Within durable goods, employment in fabricated metal products has increased by 14,000 since September. In January, employment also rose in nonmetallic mineral products, communications equipment, and computer and peripheral equipment. These job gains were more than offset, however, by small losses in other durable goods industries and most nondurable goods industries. The average workweek in manufacturing rose by 0.3 hour in January to 40.9 hours, following a decrease of 0.2 hour in December. Factory overtime was unchanged over the month at 4.6 hours.
"Several service-providing industries had employment gains over the month; the largest was in retail trade (+76,000). Some retail industries, such as general merchandise stores, sporting goods and hobby stores, and miscellaneous retail stores, did not do as much hiring for the holidays as usual and thus did not shed as many jobs after the holiday season. As a result, employment in these industries increased in January (after seasonal adjustment) but is little changed from October. On the other hand, continued employment growth in building material and garden supply stores (+14,000 in January) likely reflects underlying strength in the housing market.
"Within transportation, the return of workers from a strike contributed to an employment gain (+9,000) in warehousing and storage. Wholesale trade employment trended upward for the third consecutive month (+11,000 in January). Nearly all of the net gain over this period has been in durable goods distribution.
"Among health care industries, employment in outpatient care centers and hospitals rose in January. Within the leisure and hospitality sector, employment in food services and drinking places continued its long-term growth trend (+28,000 in January).
"Some service-providing industries lost jobs in January. Employment in the temporary help services industry was down for the first time since April 2003. The information sector lost 10,000 jobs over the month. Accounting and bookkeeping services employment decreased by 18,000, largely offsetting gains in November and December.
"Employment in financial activities was flat in January. The securities industry continued to add jobs; employment has risen by 23,000 since August. The downward trend in employment continued among insurance carriers.
"Average hourly earnings for production or nonsupervisory workers rose by two cents in January after a 1-cent gain the prior month. Over the 12 months ending in January, hourly earnings increased by 2.0 percent."
"Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 112,000 in January and has risen by 366,000 since August 2003. In January, there were job gains in construction and several service-providing industries. While manufacturing employment continued to trend down, the rate of job loss has slowed considerably in recent months. The unemployment rate, at 5.6 percent, was little changed over the month but is down from its recent peak of 6.3 percent in June 2003.
"Within the goods-producing sector, construction employment was up by 24,000 in January, after seasonal adjustment. Construction employment continues to be buoyed by strength in the housing market. Since March, the industry has added 147,000 jobs.
"Manufacturing employment edged down in January (-11,000). From September through January, manufacturing job losses have averaged 20,000 a month, compared with an average decline of 62,000 for the first eight months of 2003. Within durable goods, employment in fabricated metal products has increased by 14,000 since September. In January, employment also rose in nonmetallic mineral products, communications equipment, and computer and peripheral equipment. These job gains were more than offset, however, by small losses in other durable goods industries and most nondurable goods industries. The average workweek in manufacturing rose by 0.3 hour in January to 40.9 hours, following a decrease of 0.2 hour in December. Factory overtime was unchanged over the month at 4.6 hours.
"Several service-providing industries had employment gains over the month; the largest was in retail trade (+76,000). Some retail industries, such as general merchandise stores, sporting goods and hobby stores, and miscellaneous retail stores, did not do as much hiring for the holidays as usual and thus did not shed as many jobs after the holiday season. As a result, employment in these industries increased in January (after seasonal adjustment) but is little changed from October. On the other hand, continued employment growth in building material and garden supply stores (+14,000 in January) likely reflects underlying strength in the housing market.
"Within transportation, the return of workers from a strike contributed to an employment gain (+9,000) in warehousing and storage. Wholesale trade employment trended upward for the third consecutive month (+11,000 in January). Nearly all of the net gain over this period has been in durable goods distribution.
"Among health care industries, employment in outpatient care centers and hospitals rose in January. Within the leisure and hospitality sector, employment in food services and drinking places continued its long-term growth trend (+28,000 in January).
"Some service-providing industries lost jobs in January. Employment in the temporary help services industry was down for the first time since April 2003. The information sector lost 10,000 jobs over the month. Accounting and bookkeeping services employment decreased by 18,000, largely offsetting gains in November and December.
"Employment in financial activities was flat in January. The securities industry continued to add jobs; employment has risen by 23,000 since August. The downward trend in employment continued among insurance carriers.
"Average hourly earnings for production or nonsupervisory workers rose by two cents in January after a 1-cent gain the prior month. Over the 12 months ending in January, hourly earnings increased by 2.0 percent."
Wednesday, February 04, 2004
Having survived my trip to Iowa, I thought I would drop some statistical facts on you today that will emphasize the severity of the nation’s unemployment crisis, especially for the long-term unemployed.
As many of you know, Congress decided it had had enough of extending the federal temporary unemployment benefits back in December. This decision cut off more than 395,000 people from receiving any form of unemployment benefit when their state funded benefits were exhausted in December. In January, an estimated 375,000 unemployed Americans will join the December group which sets a new record for the Bush administration to put in its trophy case along with its record-setting $521 billion deficit.
"In no other month on record — and in no other six-month period for which data are available — have so many unemployed workers exhausted their regular unemployment benefits without being able to receive additional aid. This finding holds even if the number of exhaustees in previous years is adjusted upward to reflect the growth in the labor force since then.
"These findings are based on Labor Department data from 1973 through 2003, and projections based on these data for the first half of 2004. The projections assume modest improvement in the labor market in the first six months of 2004."
That information comes from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) which also uses the Labor Department figures to predict that during the first six months of this year, nearly two million unemployed workers are expected to also exhaust their unemployment benefits with no federal relief.
Pay close attention to the fact that we're just examining the months of December, 2003 and January, 2004 and forecasting for the upcoming first two quarters of the year. We're not even touching on the millions of other people in the U.S. who have exhausted their unemployment benefits long ago.
Before anyone thinks this is a case of a few bad states bringing the rest of the country down, let me dispel those thoughts now.
Using CBPP projections, nine states (Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Vermont) will set records for the highest number of unemployed persons losing benefits during the first six months of the year.
"The most dramatic story is in North Carolina. The 61,600 unemployed workers who are expected to exhaust their regular benefits without being able to receive further aid is 50 percent higher than the next highest (state) level on record."
But let's not limit our topic to the Naughty Nine above because 10 other states (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin) are projected to record the second-highest number of people losing unemployment benefits during the first six months of the year in each state's history.
Allow me to pile on some more ...
The optimist could say that this only represents 19 of 50 states, but nine other states are on pace to have the third highest total in state history and every other state except Alaska projects to record numbers of citizens losing unemployment benefits that are above the state historical average.
That's an incredible 49 out of 50 states.
In fairness to the Bush administration these are just the projections of one economic organization. However, the trend is not only disturbing in its numbers and size, but also its reach as it impacts each state in the union but one.
The lesson here is to not always believe what you read and see regarding the national unemployment rate as seen in the left. That is a figure made up of people currently receiving state or federal unemployment benefits. Conveniently, it’s the millions of other unemployed people in the U.S. who lose their benefits or don't qualify that do not figure into the overall unemployment rate. The message for the unemployed is if you're no longer counted, you no longer matter.
As many of you know, Congress decided it had had enough of extending the federal temporary unemployment benefits back in December. This decision cut off more than 395,000 people from receiving any form of unemployment benefit when their state funded benefits were exhausted in December. In January, an estimated 375,000 unemployed Americans will join the December group which sets a new record for the Bush administration to put in its trophy case along with its record-setting $521 billion deficit.
"In no other month on record — and in no other six-month period for which data are available — have so many unemployed workers exhausted their regular unemployment benefits without being able to receive additional aid. This finding holds even if the number of exhaustees in previous years is adjusted upward to reflect the growth in the labor force since then.
"These findings are based on Labor Department data from 1973 through 2003, and projections based on these data for the first half of 2004. The projections assume modest improvement in the labor market in the first six months of 2004."
That information comes from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) which also uses the Labor Department figures to predict that during the first six months of this year, nearly two million unemployed workers are expected to also exhaust their unemployment benefits with no federal relief.
Pay close attention to the fact that we're just examining the months of December, 2003 and January, 2004 and forecasting for the upcoming first two quarters of the year. We're not even touching on the millions of other people in the U.S. who have exhausted their unemployment benefits long ago.
Before anyone thinks this is a case of a few bad states bringing the rest of the country down, let me dispel those thoughts now.
Using CBPP projections, nine states (Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Vermont) will set records for the highest number of unemployed persons losing benefits during the first six months of the year.
"The most dramatic story is in North Carolina. The 61,600 unemployed workers who are expected to exhaust their regular benefits without being able to receive further aid is 50 percent higher than the next highest (state) level on record."
But let's not limit our topic to the Naughty Nine above because 10 other states (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin) are projected to record the second-highest number of people losing unemployment benefits during the first six months of the year in each state's history.
Allow me to pile on some more ...
The optimist could say that this only represents 19 of 50 states, but nine other states are on pace to have the third highest total in state history and every other state except Alaska projects to record numbers of citizens losing unemployment benefits that are above the state historical average.
That's an incredible 49 out of 50 states.
In fairness to the Bush administration these are just the projections of one economic organization. However, the trend is not only disturbing in its numbers and size, but also its reach as it impacts each state in the union but one.
The lesson here is to not always believe what you read and see regarding the national unemployment rate as seen in the left. That is a figure made up of people currently receiving state or federal unemployment benefits. Conveniently, it’s the millions of other unemployed people in the U.S. who lose their benefits or don't qualify that do not figure into the overall unemployment rate. The message for the unemployed is if you're no longer counted, you no longer matter.
