Not Working for a Living

Having passed the 10,000 barrier earlier this month, many pointed to the stock market's rise as further proof that the economy was back in a big way. Sure, the economy has been recovering, but it's not as if the patient has been dismissed from the hospital.

This year was a good one for traders, but some market watchers are sounding especially cautious about the upcoming year and caution about the economy makes for a slow thaw on a hiring freeze.

"While traders are celebrating the long-awaited return of the bull market, many are asking whether the good times can continue, and some are warning that tough challenges lie ahead for investors in 2004.

"Analysts also say more evidence of wrongdoing in the mutual fund industry, which first made headlines in September, could weigh on stocks in 2004, and a continued decline in the value of the U.S. dollar might discourage investment from overseas. More geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the U.S. occupation of Iraq and the continuing threat of terrorist attacks also could limit the market’s gains."

As long as some people point to the economy and its slow momentum as a sign of hope for the unemployed, keep waiting they say, today's economic indicators do little for the patience of the unemployed as consumer confidence, home sales and manufacturing all fell below analyst expectations.

"The reports underscored two clouds hanging over the economic recovery: improving but still sluggish hiring and a housing market that may be losing steam after sustaining the economy through its long doldrums.

"Out of 5,000 households surveyed, the number saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32.6 percent this month, from 29.6 percent. The number saying jobs are "plentiful" slipped to 12.5 percent, from 13.5 percent. Americans' appraisal of business conditions also lost ground, according to the survey."

I heard Rush Limbaugh's guest host today say his best defense is the truth when arguing with people. I couldn't agree more when applying that same logic to the herky-jerky economic picture in the U.S. For all the spin the Bush administration wants to put on each morsel of positive economic news, it's so sharply weakened when compared to the realities of the employment market.

There one other universal thing we know about the truth, it hurts, in this case, it's a pain for both the administration and the unemployed.

Below is a recent report on "compassionate downsizing" from The Conference Board, a bow tie organization I've mentioned in this blog a few times before. The jist of the report is that some companies, 13.6 percent of those they chose to contact, offer some impressive post-employment benefits to the victims of corporate downsizing.

Losing one's job can be as stressful a life moment as the loss of a loved one. While the comparison may strike some of you as overdramatic, when you consider the amount of time, the relationships you built and the identity your job brought to you, it isn't that far-fetched.

Look at the effect unemployment has on so many people ... point made.

Finding companies like the one's highlighted below in the TCB's report are too far and few between to make a difference in the U.S. I would also point out that there's nothing to say some of the examples listed below aren't one-time instances or union contract ties, but it is something to keep in mind while pursuing your next job.

By the way, all I got for my layoff was a ho-hum severance, a pink slip that said I was an admirable employee and a handshake. Oh, yeah, a small box to haul off my belongings.


In the wake of increasing layoffs in the last three years, more companies are offering what they call "compassionate" downsizing, which emphasizes "career growth" rather than immediate re-employment, according to a Conference Board study released today.

Compassionate downsizing is the offering of services beyond outplacement to help employees find new jobs and to help transition employees with respect and care. It can become an opportunity for business success by preserving employee morale and generating continued goodwill in the community.

The Conference Board study is based on a survey of 369 senior human resources executives of mid to large-sized global companies.

Eighty-seven percent of the survey respondents indicated that their companies had experienced layoffs between January 2001 and December 2002. Among those that reported layoffs, a mean total of 1,022 employees were downsized, which represented an average of 8.9 percent of their companies' workforce.

"Outplacement began as a service for terminated executives at the six-figure salary level and consisted chiefly of administrative support during the job search,” says Sophia A. Muirhead, Senior Research Associate at The Conference Board and author of the report. "In the early '90s recession, it expanded to middle managers and, in the late '90s boom, outplacement firms began to include more transitioning services in coaching, mentoring, and development."

SEVERANCE PAY AND MUCH MORE

Most surveyed firms now offer severance pay, outplacement/job placement assistance, continued healthcare benefits, and priority consideration for reassignment to another job within the company to employees who have been laid off.

Some firms are enhancing their severance packages by providing additional benefits, such as career and educational counseling, references, interview coaching, and education and training benefits.

Education and training benefits are offered as a supplement to outplacement, not as a replacement for it. While 84 percent of survey participants report their companies offered traditional outplacement assistance, 13.6 percent say that they also offer education and training as transition benefits.

More survey participants in the energy, utilities, healthcare, and consumer manufacturing industries say that their companies offer education and retraining benefits to laid-off employees. Among companies providing education and training benefits, the average annual cost per employee is $4,025.

More than three-quarters of the firms that offer education and training benefits were more likely to offer these benefits to middle management and technical/professional employees than to other levels of employees.

The top four reasons for offering transition benefits to downsized employees are: to sustain the morale of retained employees; to demonstrate the company’s commitment to remaining employees; to manage former employees’ perceptions of the company; and to maintain the company’s reputation in the community.

COMPANIES OFFERING EDUCATION AND TRAINING BENEFITS

Exelon Corporation, an electricity firm, engaged the Council for Adult and Experiential Learning (CAEL) for educational assistance and counseling when it downsized staff during the merger between its predecessors, Unicom and PECO Energy. CAEL’s coverage included an educational and retraining allowance of $3,000, which covered reimbursement of tuition, fees, and the cost of required textbooks and other materials. Experienced CAEL education and career advisors helped departing employees identify gaps in learning, develop a learning plan that would help them garner the skills and credentials to fill in the gaps in learning, and ascertain cost-effective training options.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s Career Services program was born out of the 1995 Chemical/Chase merger. An education grant was introduced and outsourced to the Council for Adult and Experiential Learning. The company feels that it is important to find alternative jobs for departing employees, so a job development function was created. Along with a career counselor, each client is provided with a CAEL education advisor and offered tuition assistance--$2,500 for full-time employees and $1,250 for part-time employees. A laid-off employee has 18 months from the last day of employment to use the education grant.

Kellogg Company closed half of its flagship plant in 1999 in Battle Creek, Michigan. The layoffs affected 500 unskilled employees who were high hourly wage workers with premium benefits packages and who had worked with the company for an average of 20 years. To assist the employee’s transition, Kellogg hired Lee Hecht Harrison, a career services company, to provide workers with a comprehensive transition program that included education, training, and financial planning expertise.


I never had it that good. If anyone would like to share their downsized moment with me, please do and we can compare war wounds.

Hot headlines from the weekend:

Spending cautious while jobs stay shaky It was with amusement that I read all stories about how the economy was back big time based on the amount of retail sales on the post-Thanksgiving weekend. Well, no kidding! People always spend big on that weekend. What happened after that weekend is the bigger news as people spent less money than expected this holiday season. Nothing like rushing to judgment on the holidays.

Pink slips greet returning soldiers So much of the unrest in the Middle East really does have to do with its incredibly high unemployment. For our soldiers returning from Iraq, many are finding frustration in trying to either land a job or get caught back up with the one they left behind. I guess being a hero is good enough for a free drink at the bar, but it doesn't do much on a HR manager's desk.

Eye of the jobs storm Few cities were hit as hard as Portland, Oregon during the unemployment crisis that continues through to today, but there is a mix of good and bad news for my former hometown. Job estimates show a recovery may soon be one the way, however, those same estimates show even eight years down the road, the city will still fall short of the total number of jobs it had before the recession.

Unemployed use gift of time I don't highlight stories such as this enough. While unemployed for nine months, I made it a personal mission to not only find a job, but also make as much of a positive impact on my children and community as I could. Idle time only brings on depression and frustration. By volunteering and spending quality time with your family, you can at least point to some positives to your present-day situation.

Layoffs hit elves at Arctic SantaPark Is there anyone safe from the grim reaper of jobs? At least Santa didn't move his gift-wrapping operations to Greenland!

Let me wish happy holidays to all and happy birthday to myself. A birthday wish for those of you still unemployed is that your search is shortly coming to a close and the year end shows some encouraging signs of making my wish for you come true.

I'm not willing to call it a recovery yet, but 2003 is ending on some high notes which one can only hope can finally spark some job creation that isn't instantly neutralized by continued layoffs.

"... reports showed an economy that was finishing up 2003 in far better shape than it was in when the year began; consumer spending was solid; incomes were rising, and people were showing increased confidence about job prospects. Growth rates reached 20-year highs.

"The Commerce Department's report Tuesday said the overall economy grew at an annual rate of 8.2 percent in the July-September quarter, unchanged from the department's estimate a month ago, but still the best growth since the final three months of 1983."

I've been hesitant to endorse these reports and numbers before as they are also usually countered by some equally discouraging news, but it's the holidays, let's do our best to enjoy.

I received an email from The Conference Board, bow ties who make economic forecasting their hobby, and they are equally bullish on the economy heading into the New Year.

"Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7 percent next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years.

"While the U.S. economy is expected to generate more than one million new jobs next year, the unemployment rate will edge down only slightly, averaging 5.6 percent in 2004."

What I read there is good times are ahead for those currently employed provided they can manage to hang on to their jobs. One million new jobs and only a .3 percent decrease in unemployment means there is going to be a lot of churn in the job market. While it may never be easy to move forward with a job while looking over your shoulder, you better get used to it.

Looking abroad, the economic forecasts for Canada, Europe, China and beyond.

"Local economists said the Chinese economy has entered a growth period. Meanwhile, the economies of the United States, Japan and Western Europe are showing signs of improvement. And the Asian economies are witness strong growth in domestic demand. Goldman Sachs of the United States predicts that China will maintain the current annual growth rate of around eight percent in the coming years."

There lies the mystery to the upcoming year. Will China and India's emergence as developing economic players on the world stage produce positive results for the U.S. job market, or will the two Asian giants continue to pick away job after job as has been the case for the last two years?

That's like asking whether that's really a gift under the tree or Pandora's box?

Hot headlines from the weekend:

Hunger and Homelessness Increase in U.S. I've said to my wife on more than one occasion that there are so many people in this country who are one missed paycheck away from being homeless. The rising number of unemployed has also given way to a rising number of those who have lost everything. Of course, for the convenience of others, these people to no longer show up on the unemployment statistics.

Don't abandon the unemployed Congress neglected stories such as the one above when its members decided to not renew the extended unemployment benefits for thousands of people. This editorial makes the case for Congress to readdress the extension of benefits upon the end of the vacation break.

Despite job growth, low-paying service jobs still way of life Lost in all the recent job growth are the types of employment used to get people back to work. The jobs have been part-time, low pay or temporary. That's not to say that any job isn't appreciated, but wouldn't it be nice if we had some quality to go with the quantity of jobs?

In Iowa, the main issue is loss of jobs Call me a broken record, but the Democrats should have this at the forefront of their attacks on President Bush. Now that the Democrats have lost Iraq as an issue, for now, it's time to turn our attention to the millions of people still unemployed and the thousands of jobs in jeopardy of going away for good. Whether it become an issue is still, unbelievably, in limbo.

Holiday gift-giving to and by unemployed Some may see this story as a fluff piece, but going through the holidays without a job is really tough emotionally. There are some really great ideas in this story, which is also a terrific follow up to a story last week about how the unemployed feel about some of the gifts they get.

Continued congratulations to our troops who found Saddam in the hole. Congratulations because the Iraqi dictator's capture is leading the Democrats running for president to finally begin discussing the unemployment crisis in the U.S.

Sounding off most prominently is an unlikely choice of domestic mouthpieces, General Wesley Clark. Clark leads off on a theme for today, many U.S. jobs are not only gone, but are never coming back.

"The only way to increase profits is to fire people," Clark said of the business mentality. "That's what's happening. Some of the jobs will never come back." He said he would "re-employ America" by pumping $100 billion into the economy.

We'll let it slide for now as to where he's going to pick up this $100 billion because at least he's opening up the debate to the lack of jobs in the U.S.

For all the fuss over the Howard Dean campaign and the history of Dick Gephardt, the General is only one of two candidates who have been willing to bring up the unemployment issue in discussing the state of the union. Senator John Edwards has also been strong on the issue, but it's unlikely you've noticed. That's OK, no one else has either.

CNN produced a review of the year of the vanishing jobs in a story today. There's little in the story that you haven't read before or seen discussed at length on this blog.

"An August Federal Reserve study estimates that as many as 79 percent of jobs are in industries where jobs have been lost forever, a phenomenon Fed economists call "structural change."

"Another estimate by Forester Research goes into more specifics. Forrester estimates that by 2015, some 3.3 million service-sector jobs will be shipped overseas or rendered obsolete by technology. Forester analyst John McCarthy says jobs that are most at risk require fewer skills, are automated or are highly portable."

Again, nothing we haven't read before. But, what it may indicate is an opportunity, better yet a hope, that unemployment is finally becoming an issue worth discussion, worth debate, worth further examination.

There's no question the war in Iraq, its aftermath, and the continuing war on terrorism are worth all the coverage it receives. However, we're living in the world of the 24-hour news cycle, somewhere in all that time, with all those media outlets and all those talking heads that we can find reason enough to discuss the millions of people unemployed and the thousands of those unemployed for a year or more.

If I can write on this topic on a regular basis, certainly a pair of talking heads can discuss the issue with Ann Coulter chiming in to say the unemployed are nothing more than lazy leeches trying to suck dry our economy.

She's so sassy like that.

This theme of jobs not coming back continues on with the news that the U.S. is on the verge of signing another round of free trade agreements, this time with Central American countries.

"The trade accord -- reached just weeks before the 10th anniversary of the North American Free Trade Agreement -- would allow more than 80 percent of U.S. consumer and industrial products into Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Honduras duty-free as soon as it went into force. That figure would rise to 85 percent within five years and 100 percent in a decade."

Economists do not expect this agreement to have the same impact as the historical NAFTA, but many expect an impact nonetheless.

"The chairman of the U.S. Sugar Industry group Wednesday said the proposed CAFTA announced is unacceptable to the U.S. sugar industry.

Sugar industry group chairman Carolyn Cheney said, "The additional sugar imports proposed and those contemplated in additional bilateral trade agreements will destroy the domestic sugar industry. Those imports will overwhelm an already abundantly supplied market."

Before anyone goes off thinking Cheney is just another liberal pinko standing in the way of business, understand that there are many Republicans leery of this agreement including Republican governor Mike Foster of Louisiana, a major sugar-producing state.

So once again we're facing a jobs vs. trade issue. Based on the events of our recent past, where does this battle figure to end? I guess it matters whether or not the issues of unemployment and permanent job losses becomes the political topics.

In closing, I would be open to criticism of my efforts if I failed to mention that the most recent jobless claims report shows a sharp drop in initial claims for the most recent week.

"First-time claims for state unemployment aid, a rough guide to the pace of layoffs, plunged 22,000 to 353,000 in the week ended Dec. 13, the Labor Department said.

"The drop brought claims back to the 2-3/4 year low they hit in early November.

"Wall Street economists had expected claims to drop to 365,000 from the 378,000 originally reported for the Dec. 6 week."

Before anyone breaks out the noisemakers too early, the story closes with some sobering reality.

"While economists have welcomed the end to a long stretch of job losses — the economy has created jobs in each of the last four months — they say the number of new positions has fallen woefully short of what is needed to cut into unemployment."

I may be leading the bandwagon for discussing the topics of unemployment and job-hunting in America, but I'm more than happy for others to jump aboard. Believe me, there's plenty of room.

Intentionally lost in all the Saddam captured excitement is some discouraging news for the unemployed. I say intentionally because businesses and government offices skillfully release stories such as these at a time when everyone's focus is on the "big story" of the day. When the traditional media bombard you with the same story 24 hours a day (can we see that tongue depressor shoved in Saddam's mouth just one more time?), it's hard to keep up with other matters.

Leading the bad news brigade is IBM announcing that it will export more than 4,700 highly skilled and highly paid jobs to India and China.

"The unannounced plan, outlined in company documents viewed by The Wall Street Journal, would replace thousands of workers at IBM facilities in Southbury, Conn., Poughkeepsie, N.Y., Raleigh, N.C., Dallas, Boulder, Colo., and elsewhere in the U.S. Already, the managers have been told, IBM has hired 500 engineers in India to take on some of the work that will be moved.

"IBM calls its plan, first presented internally to some midlevel managers in October, "Global Sourcing." It involves people in its Application Management Services group, a part of IBM's giant global-services operations, which comprise more than half IBM's 315,000 employees."

Let's call it what this really is, "The Hunt for Cheap Labor."

This is what leads me to believe we will continue to have a volatile unemployment situation in the U.S. The pressures for profits are driving companies away from the U.S. workforce to Mexico, China and India. Manufacturing is such a lost cause in the U.S., one has to wonder how much longer it is before the same can be said for computer technology jobs?

For how long did we hear/ignore the warning signs about manufacturing before we ended up with the pitiful existence manufacturing has now. When you compare manufacturing today to what it was (it down right built this country into the global economic giant), that type of foreshadowing has to be a scary prospect for anyone in the technology field.

For all the talk about the surging economy, there are still some harsh realities for the unemployed to consider. First, it's been said that small businesses are collectively the largest employer of the American workforce. If that still holds true today, there is some troubling news for job seekers as small businesses are known to be holding off on any hiring in the near future.

"Small firms, employing about half of all workers, added employees last month, but at a slower pace than in October, a survey of 629 firms out Monday says.

"Moreover, just 12 percent of such firms plan to add workers in the next three months, down from 13% in October, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey says. Such hiring plans, which bottomed last spring, had climbed through August. They peaked at 14 percent before trending down.

"The anemic hiring partly explains November's unexpectedly weak employment gains. Overall, U.S. companies added just 57,000 jobs during the month — a third of what economists expected."

When you consider small firms hire small numbers of people, and only 12 percent of those will hire over a span of three months, that's not exactly a feeding frenzy at the job market buffet. Two reasons for small firms holding off; revenue growth isn't that strong and current workforce productivity is still so high.

The productivity is such a double-edged sword as it just leaves so little push for companies to expand when making profits on zero additional labor investment, but it does help the national economy.

(And while I'm at it, this notion that companies will hire more because they know their workers are burning out is such hogwash. When did companies start caring about workers going too hard for too long? When did companies start offering nap breaks? When was the last time a shift leader said, "Whoa there, Sparky, what's the rush?")

The other hiring freezer I'll point out yet again is the soaring cost of health insurance for employees and their employers.

Forget for a moment that more of the costs are being passed down to the employee level, the costs for businesses are still going up. Anything that increases into non-business related expenses such as health insurance will impact a company’s ability to expand.

"Employers say they cannot continue to absorb most of the rising cost of health coverage. Premiums are rising at their fastest clip in a decade as consumers use more medical care, new drugs hit the market and medical providers and insurers seek to bolster profits."

For the unemployed, no job means no money. When they find a job, a rising majority of your money goes towards insurance and other basic needs.

For the unemployed, the candle continues to burn at both ends.

Hot headlines from the weekend:

State lost 14,400 jobs in November In honor of the 'Ah-nuld' being named A&E's Biography of the year, California learns it has almost 15,000 fewer jobs than the month before. One has the feeling the number of jobs created (nationwide) are a wash in comparison to the number of jobs either eliminated or exported. If California still isn't the haven of new jobs, what now becomes the jobless destination of choice?

Expect more jobs in 2004, but not a lot in manufacturing The answer to the previous question is Arizona! The state expects a job spurt of more than 78,000 in 2004 alone. If you can stand the heat, one can expect a whole lot of work in this Southwestern kitchen. Construction, health care and business services are expected to see the most growth. If you can score that job in Phoenix, even better, it's one of the best cities in the U.S.

Jobs exiled from U.S. give raise to activism Richard Armstrong loses three jobs to overseas outsourcing and decides he's had enough. Armstrong creates a Web site and has around 100,000 unemployed people taking to emailing and writing their representatives to do something to stem the tide of outsourcing. I have no affiliation with Armstrong or his organization, but it's great to see someone taking the initiative to rally the unemployed.

Traffic to my blog will now cease to exist.

Treasury's Snow to Students: There Will Be Jobs U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow pulls a little slight of hand during a graduation commencement. He says there will be jobs available for this final class of 2003, he just doesn't know where they'll be or in what industry. HA! John Snow, what a card! No word on the reaction students had when Johnny pulled his old "pull my finger" gag on the school valedictorian.

At Recovery's Dawn Understandably lost among the capture of Saddam Hussein, was an incredible story in the Washington Post on the harsh realities facing the newly employed. When looking behind the curtain of the falling unemployment rate, we find those who have found employment are often doing so for jobs far below their skill set and salary history.

The lead of the story says it all. It focuses on a woman, unemployed for more than a year, who finds a job where the personnel director tells the new employee that she's the cream of the crop. Yes, the "top notch" new hire is in charge of filling urinals with those little deodorant cakes, among other duties.

This is a recovery?

To quote ultra-obnoxious sports announcer Lee Corso, "not so fast, my friend" as unemployment claims jumped up for the second week in a row.

President Bush, you've almost pulled your arm out of its socket congratulating yourself on the recent upswing in the economy, so who takes the "credit" for this development?

Another debate, another opportunity for each of the Democratic candidates from president to make their case for how to improve the unemployment problem in the U.S. Tuesday's debate was hosted by Ted Koppel who emerged as the star of the night with his witty one-liners and his rapport with the candidates.

That's not exactly great news for the Democrats when Koppel steals the show.

Anyhow, for our sake, only three candidates ever took the time to address this unemployment issue and not one of the three were named John Edwards. To my surprise, Edwards didn't use his moments in the debate to hit on the unemployment issue as he has throughout his campaign and all the other previous debates. Edwards has been the most consistent of the candidates to bring up the issue.

Below are job creation and unemployment remarks from Howard Dean, Joe Lieberman (who was directly asked a jobs question) and Dick Gephardt.

Howard Dean: "I was in a car the other day with a woman who was a teacher. She told me she'd taught for 23 years. She made a decent salary. Her husband had lost his job, but he was able to find another one that was for less pay.

"They made too much to get any help sending their kid to college, and they couldn't afford their one child's tuition for college. That's what this election is about.

"This president has lost 3 million jobs. He has given tax cuts to people who make $1 million a year of $112,000. Sixty percent of us got $325.

"What this election is about is taking back this country for ordinary people.

"Average people can't send their kids to college. Average people have health-care payments every month that are more than their house payments.

"We need to talk about how to move George Bush back to Crawford, Texas, so ordinary people in this country don't have to worry about their jobs going to China; so that we can have a president of the United States who doesn't think that big corporations who get tax cuts ought to be able to move their headquarters to Bermuda and their jobs offshore.

"So that we do something for small businesses in this country that create 70 percent of the jobs in America and keep their jobs in their community.

"What this election is about -- yes, national security is important, but I don't think it's an hour and a quarter out of an hour and a half debate.

"We need to talk about jobs. We need to talk to about health insurance for every single American. We need to talk about an education system that's different than No Child Left Behind, which has left so many children and so many teachers behind and given huge unfunded mandates to Americans all over this country."

How prolific! Dean actually delivered a whole long speech on jobs, the economy and living conditions. I'm still not sold on his candidacy, but that was impressive.

Lieberman: "I always remember the President Kennedy line that a rising tide raises all boats. And under George W. Bush, the tide has dropped and a lot of boats have suffered. Three and half million people have lost their jobs, millions of jobs in manufacturing hemorrhaging out of this country.

"So I've said the first thing we've got to do, stop the hemorrhaging. And what does that mean? Get tough on foreign countries that are not playing by the rules of trade. And then be even more aggressive about opening up foreign markets for goods made here to create jobs here at home.

"My plan of economic recovery has a goal, and we can deliver on it: 10 million jobs in the first four years of my administration.

"How are we going to do it? Let's give a tax credit to manufacturers to keep jobs here in the United States of America. Let's take some of those tax cuts that went to people at the high- income level that don't need them that George Bush gave; take them away. Give them to the middle class and give them to small businesses to create jobs and opportunity. And then give life-long opportunities for retraining to America's workers.

"We can get this economy going again. We need a Democratic president to make it happen."

That's quite a statement. Ten million jobs created in four years? Let's be honest, a claim like that is coming from someone far behind in the polls.

In closing today, we go to Mr. Labor, Mr. Jobs, Mr. I-must-win-Iowa-or-else.

Gephardt: "Look, we got problems that you mentioned out there in the country. When I go out in Iowa, New Hampshire, the other states, people come up and talk about losing jobs -- losing good jobs to China or Mexico or to some other country in the world or just going bankrupt.

"They talk about losing their 401(k). They talk about not having health care insurance when their children are sick.

"We have to give people hope. And I believe we have to show people a path, plans that can be accomplished that will solve these problems.

"I have the experience. Everything I'm talking about in this campaign, getting everybody covered with health care, Apollo 21 energy plan, a universal pension plan, an international minimum wage, come from my experience and my heart.

"These are things that I've seen, lived through myself, and have seen people live through. And we've got to give people hope and optimism that we can solve these problems.

And later ...

Gephardt: "The middle class is going away. People are losing jobs that would allow them to educate their children and have health care. People are losing health care every day.

"When I'm out in these states talking to people, people come up to me and say, "I've got a kid with diabetes, and I don't have health care. And I don't want to go on welfare. I want a job, but I can't get health care and have a job." That's wrong.

"We've got people that can't get the money together to send their kid to college.

"I grew up in a poor family. My dad was a truck driver. It was the best job he ever had. We had nothing. He'd sit at a little desk in our house, tried to pay the bills every month. He could never pay them.

"I got to go to great universities, because I got church scholarships and loans and government grants. You can't -- kids that are poor today can't get enough loans together, and the Pell grants don't cover much of anything.

"We have to address the underlying fundamental issue in this country, is that how do we have a middle class? That's what's made this country what it is. And we need new leadership to get that to happen."

Again, I would like to see an all-out discussion on the unemployment issue such as they always seem to do with the situation in Iraq. You're telling me unemployment in this country doesn't deserve more of each candidate's time then has been given in three straight debates?

Thoughts on what may be slowing the jobless recovery may be partially answered today in a press release from The Conference Board:

CEO PAY RISES IN MOST INDUSTRIES,
OUTSIDE DIRECTOR PAY ALSO UP IN ALL INDUSTRIES,
THE CONFERENCE BOARD REPORTS IN ANNUAL COMPENSATION STUDIES

"Median total compensation for outside (non-employee) directors of U.S. boards in 2003 is up from last year in all three major industry sectors covered in The Conference Board's annual study of outside director pay. The study is based on a survey of director compensation and board practices in 606 companies.

"The increased scrutiny of corporate governance practices in the wake of the recent scandals has put increasing pressure on members of boards of directors. Audit and compensation committees are especially under pressure to observe rigorous standards. As a result, retainers for these two committees have increased over the last year, driven by the principle that increased performance deserves increased pay.

"In manufacturing, median total compensation for outside directors is now $69,620, up from $55,700 in 2002. The financial sector increased from $41,450 to $55,000. Service was $60,000 this year, up from $48,400 last year (total compensation includes all fees and retainers, annual, one-time or periodic grants of stock, restricted stock grants, and the value of option grants).

"Median basic annual compensation, the mix of fees, retainers and committee pay is up in all three industry sectors. Manufacturing increased from $39,000 to $45,000, financial services from $31,600 to $43,000, and service from $35,700 to $40,000. The table on the next page compares median basic compensation and total compensation for 2002 and 2003 in the three major industries.

CEO PAY ALSO RISES

"Median total compensation for CEOs was higher in all industries in 2002 (the latest year for which official data is available) except telecommunications, which declined, The Conference Board reports.

"Although the economy was sluggish during 2002, there was general improvement over the prior year," says Charles Peck, The Conference Board's compensation specialist and author of the report. "Since a substantial amount of executive pay relates to annual performance, this improvement probably accounts for the increase. However, stock option grants, which were the golden-egg goose during the 90's, were smaller in the majority of industries. This may signal a trend away from using this device."

"Total CEO compensation was highest in financial services at $2,512,000. It was lowest in wholesale trade at $893,000. Total current compensation (salary plus bonus) was also highest in financial services at $1,524,000 and lowest in computer services at $656,000. Communications paid the highest median salary of $625,000. Lowest was computer services, which paid $400,000.

"The report is based on data from 2,877 companies in 14 major industries. It reports total compensation (salary, bonus and the value of long-term incentives), total current compensation (salary plus bonus) and salary for companies' five highest-paid executives."

Now, I don't have a problem with people making money, even lots of money, but when those outsider director's salaries begin costing regular full time employees their jobs, there should be heads rolling downhill from the corner offices into the office pools.

Outrage!

That's what many of the unemployed are justifiably feeling after Congress voted to not extend unemployment benefits after the Dec. 21 deadline.

"In a party line 211-179 vote, House Republicans and one Democrat rejected a procedural effort Monday by most Democrats to allow consideration of a renewal of extended unemployment benefits."

I don't know which is worse, having the extension of benefits ignored, or having it put to a vote and watching 211 representatives deny thousands of people extended unemployment benefits.

Those benefits will run out four days before Christmas!

"The reason we didn't move ahead on unemployment benefits is we have employment on the increase instead of on the decline," said Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri. "So at some point, there should be a point when the temporary benefits should end."

Wait, wait, wait a minute there Congressman! Let me recap some figures for you published here on this blog on Saturday.

"From July of 2003 to November 2003, long-term unemployment (27 weeks or longer) has gone up from 21.7 percent to 23.7 percent. (That 23.7 percent is of the entire unemployed population, or at least of those who qualify or are still counted.) Compared to November 2002, the figures go from 21.3 percent in 2002 to the 23.7 today.

When viewing the average number of weeks unemployed, the figures again raise from 19 weeks in August 2003 to 20.1 weeks in November 2003.

It should be noted that both the rise in both percentage of long-term unemployed and the average number of weeks have grown faster than the overall unemployment has fallen in the same amount of time."

Roy Blunt publishes a paper each year called the "Blunt Facts" that he says recaps all his votes from the legislative session. Well, here's another Blunt Fact for you. Of the five press releases from Blunt's office on Monday, all neglected to mention his no vote on unemployment.

You would think, however, he could have found room is this related press release to speak on his vote to extend unemployment benefits:

"Southwest Missouri Congressman and Majority Whip Roy Blunt secured $800,000 in the final appropriations bill covering 2004 federal spending for the Monett Children's Center and construction of a Southwest Area Career Center in Monett.

"Both of these critical Monett projects are investments in our community," Blunt said. "Our children and high schoolers are our future leaders, and I'm pleased the House agreed that these are important priorities for Southwest Missouri."

Southwest Area Career Center $750,000

Blunt and Senator Kit Bond secured these funds to construct a new Southwest Area Career Center behind the existing Monett High School. The federal support is in addition to a voter-approved bond issue that covers about half the cost of the new $9.5 million facility. The existing program for 650 students from 14 area high schools is housed in a 40-year old building. The school offers a variety of training in 15 career fields. Dr. Charles Cutney said, "The support of Senator Bond and Congressman Blunt has been critical to moving this project along."

But the critical project of allowing the long term unemployed to move along just got stomped.

As we know, the longer you're out of work, the harder it is to get a job. It may not be fair, but that's the reality of employers when reviewing resumes and interviews. Yes, you may look good on paper and may have made a fine presentation of yourself in the interview, but there's always that lingering bit of doubt as to why no one else has picked you up until now.

While it is easy to focus on Blunt for the killing of extended unemployment benefits, there were 210 other members of Congress who joined him. Some of those Congress members may represent your district, that person may represent you.

The holiday season of 2003, the year the unemployed got screwed by 211 Congressmen and women playing the part of Scrooge.

Hot headlines from the weekend:

U.S. Democrats fault Bush, Republicans on jobs Following President Bush's rosy economic review on his weekly radio address, the Democratic Congressman from Oregon, Darlene Hooley blasted back faulting the GOP for its miserable jobs record. However, Hooley could have also included her colleagues in the Democratic Party who are currently running for president that keep avoiding the unemployment issue in their last two debates. (Check blog entries for Nov. 6 and Nov. 25 in this blog's archives.)

GOP to let jobless benefits expire I would be shocked if the GOP actually avoids extending unemployment benefits before taking their holiday break. The timing of such a move would be idiotic and cruel for the thousands of unemployed and their families depending upon those funds during the holidays.

Some jobs sizzle ... others fizzle in an unusual local market Basically, local tavern owner is surprised by not only the number of applicants for wait staff and line cooks, but the qualifications of said applicants. We're talking about business and techie types from all over Northern Colorado. Ft. Collins is one of many communities where the job market has been turned on its head.

Many jobs don't pay as well here as elsewhere As if anyone needed another reason to leave Buffalo. On a plus, higher wage jobs are growing faster than lower wage jobs in the area. But, that also makes finding a job to hold you over between jobs much harder.

Who Wins and Who Loses as Jobs Move Overseas An enlightening conversation among economists on how outsourcing is impacting the country today and the predictions for the future of the U.S. job market. The story offers some differing points of view on the topics of outsourcing and globalization without the yelling heads too often found on television.

I'll leave it for you to decide who's right or off-base on many of the questions, but the one common theme seems to be that major changes in the working world as we know it are on the way.

There isn't a whole lot of significance in the latest employment numbers for November. In short, the unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 5.9 percent where it will probably remain at the end of the year. Analysts were disappointed in the rise of only 57,000 new jobs in November, far below expectations.

"Economists are looking for monthly payroll gains of 200,000 to 300,000 to significantly lower the unemployment rate and sustain a labor market recovery.

Treasury Secretary John Snow said the report was further evidence the U.S. labor market was gaining a firmer footing.

"I thought we'd see some drop in the unemployment rate, given the good economic news — the strong growth we're seeing in GDP, the fact that manufacturing is coming back, factory orders are coming back," Snow said.

Their are some related trends that show some encouraging signs for a starting point of a jobless recovery. Among the production and consumer spending trends is the encouraging news of the return of the IPO.

" ... of the 53 companies that have gone public for all of 2003, nearly half have been in the last two months and at least 10 more are expected by the end of the year. The fourth quarter is shaping up to be the busiest period for IPOs since the end of 2000, according to IPOhome.com, a division of Renaissance Capital in Greenwich, Conn."

Now we've all been down this road before where the IPO surge turned into funny money used to hire millions of workers only to have the trap door fall below us. However, this time investors are a little more cautious and conservative when it comes to dipping their toes into new start-ups.

"That rush to get into every new issue, regardless of whether the company made money or not or had a promising business model, isn't happening now. Investors are going for more stable companies and aren't running up their prices too fast."

I've called the IPO craze of the '90s our generation's version of the 1849 Gold Rush. And just like then, much of the craze was built upon fool's gold. However, using more sense and caution for what may be another season of IPO mania may spark a recovery.

There is one company that may tilt the balance of sensibility ... can you say, Google?

The Googs crew is said to be going IPO sometime in 2004 fetching a sum of around 2 billion dollars. Can that translate into another round of confidence and investment in similar Web companies? Time will tell.

Time is not something on the side of the long-term unemployed. Browsing through my employment statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it is once again going unnoticed by everyone expect this blog's author that the percentage of long-term unemployed (27 weeks of unemployment or longer) has steadily continued to go up over the last few months.

From July of 2003 to November 2003, long-term unemployment (27 weeks or longer) has gone up from 21.7 percent to 23.7 percent. (That 23.7 percent is of the entire unemployed population, or at least of those who qualify or are still counted.) Compared to November 2002, the figures go from 21.3 percent in 2002 to the 23.7 today.

When viewing the average number of weeks unemployed, the figures again raise from 19 weeks in August 2003 to 20.1 weeks in November 2003.

It should be noted that both the rise in both percentage of long-term unemployed and the average number of weeks have grown faster than the overall unemployment has fallen in the same amount of time.

Evidence that job recovery progress is slower than most people believe.

Statement this morning from Kathleen P. Utgoff, Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 57,000 in November, and the unemployment rate, at 5.9 percent, was essentially unchanged over the month. Since July, payroll employment has increased by 328,000.

Over the month, the number of jobs in health care and social assistance continued to increase, rising by 25,000 in November. The accommodations industry added 13,000 jobs, following losses that totaled 27,000 in the prior 3 months.

Although employment in professional and business services was little changed in November, employment in this sector has risen by 181,000 so far this year. About three-quarters of this gain was in temporary help services.

Construction employment continued to trend up in November; the industry has added 156,000 jobs since February.

Retail trade employment fell by 28,000 in November, largely due to the net impact of strike-related activities in food and beverage stores. In the payroll survey, workers on strike for the entire reference period are not counted as employed because they are not being paid by their employers. Although a large number of workers were off payrolls in food stores due to labor-management disputes, the hiring of replacement workers offset some of the employment decline.

The number of jobs in credit intermediation, which includes mortgage banking, declined for the second consecutive month. Since September, the industry has lost 16,000 jobs, but that follows employment gains of about a quarter million over the prior 3 years. Most of this job growth reflected increased mortgage refinancing activity, which has fallen sharply in recent months.

The pace of job losses in manufacturing has eased in recent months. Over the past 3 months, employment edged down by an average of 17,000 per month, compared with an average monthly drop of 53,000 for the 12 months ending in August. Nearly all of this relative improvement has occurred in durable goods manufacturing, where employment was unchanged in November. The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.2 hour over the month and has risen by 0.7 hour since July. Factory overtime also has risen in recent months.

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers were essentially unchanged in November at $15.46. Over the year, average hourly earnings increased by 2.1 percent. Since March 2001, the over-the-year change in average hourly earnings has dropped by 2 percentage points.

Looking at some of our measures obtained from the survey of households, the unemployment rate in November, at 5.9 percent, was about unchanged over the month but down slightly from the rates recorded during the summer. The number of unemployed persons was little changed at 8.7 million in November, and the number of individuals who had been jobless for more than half a year remained at 2.0 million. These long-term unemployed comprised nearly 1 in every 4 unemployed persons.

The employment-population ratio, the proportion of the civilian population age 16 and over that is employed, increased to 62.4 percent and is up by 0.4 percentage point from September.

In summary, nonfarm payroll employment rose for the fourth month in a row, edging up by 57,000 in November. The unemployment rate, at 5.9 percent, was essentially unchanged from October."

When it rains for a few days in a row, do you still go out and water the lawn?

That's what's facing American companies right now as their inventories are starting to fly out the door, but their current workforce is keeping the pace based on the latest productivity numbers for the third quarter.

"The latest report, which showed output climbing at a 10.3 percent rate but hours worked up just 0.8 percent, offered confirmation the sizzling pace of growth, the strongest quarterly expansion in gross domestic product in nearly 20 years, primarily reflected the ability of businesses to squeeze more out of their existing work force."

I can't wait to see companies beginning to hire in masses again, but with a 9.4 percent increase in productivity, that's a sonic boom of output that gives employers the best of both worlds; higher profits without adding employee expense. When you figure the steep annual insurance increase each company will have to shill out, the additional hiring that is expected to come in the first quarter of 2004 may still not be the open gates to fulfillment we're all hoping for.

It must be pointed out that increased productivity is a positive for the economy and the country. It's just an additional obstacle for the unemployed hoping to break into the ranks of the ultra-productive. The punishing productivity is also our current best defense against the exportation of jobs overseas. As more companies are beginning to learn, shipping jobs overseas for lower wages isn't always everything it's cracked up to be.

Turns out some companies are brining jobs back to the U.S. after relocating some of their operations overseas and finding (surprise!) problems.

"Take Jamey Bennett. When he first began selling his LightWedge personal reading lamp a few years ago, everything was made in China. Then the headaches began: Numerous conference calls in the middle of the night. Shipment delays because of a dockworker strike in California. And many problems related to language differences. The problems became so acute that Bennett transferred the manufacturing to Virginia two months ago."

I've got a better idea, based on the above account, why don't they start having stockholder's meetings at those bizarre hours as well? Start taxing the stockholders and those jobs will start coming back home before you know it.

Detailed in the story are the usual suspects of problems companies are experiencing in moving jobs overseas.

"Culture, language: U.S. firms are finding the do-it-now culture of the USA and some American tastes don't easily translate overseas."

"Expertise: Many countries are churning out well-educated engineers, scientists and others while some foreigners are coming to the USA to be educated and then return home. But such education often does not replace experience."

"Shipping: Some manufacturers are finding the time, money and extra regulatory burdens associated with shipping products to the USA prohibitive. Those issues were compounded after the Sept. 11 attacks, because import regulations were strengthened."

Let me throw in another negative to moving it overseas, no other country can produce when it comes to work at the breakneck speed of the United States. We're the leader of the world for one reason, our people do it best.

Despite these obstacles, those same stockholders sleeping comfortably at night wake up to just one reality: money.

"UC-Davis' Martin Kenney and co-author Rafiq Dossani of Stanford University estimate a call center worker who costs clients $12.47 an hour "including equipment and other costs" in Kansas City costs $4.12 an hour in Mumbai, the Indian city formerly known as Bombay."

No need for translation on that fact.

In closing, let me show another case where reduced taxation results in an inability to maintain jobs. I'm not calling for an all-out hike to even our tax tables with those ridiculous scales found in Europe, but when we start tapping into the public safety of our citizens for the cause of keeping our taxes below reason, we've gone too far.

"The federal program that added more than 100,000 cops to local police forces and helped to cut crime to historically low rates during the past decade is being rolled back because local governments can't afford to keep many of the officers on the street.

The Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) program was a hallmark of the Clinton administration, providing more than $8 billion in grants to saturate crime-plagued areas with officers and forging unprecedented ties between cops and neighborhood patrols. From New York to Los Angeles, "community policing" became a symbol of America's frustration with the high crime rates of the early 1990s' and of governments' big spending in a soaring economy.

But now budgets are leaner, and law enforcement analysts say that the largest federally funded buildup of local police in U.S. history is being washed away by cutbacks and retirements."

Who is going to feel safer knowing there are fewer police and firefighters available because the tax revenue needed to fund those jobs no longer exist and now neither do the jobs?

Ask the people in Shreveport, La. is they would feel any safer knowing there may be fewer cops around?

Keep in mind, for all the fuss we make about outsourcing, public safety jobs aren't the kind you can ship overseas, instead Americans are purposely making or supporting the choice to eliminate those jobs from the record books thus putting at risk our public safety.

This is no different than the extra funds cities and states need for overtime staffing for all those color-coded terrorism alerts. Just like the federally funded police jobs, the tax dollar funding doesn't exist.

As we've all been told, "If we live in fear, the terrorists win." Then the government should do more to keep us feeling safe, not less.

Keep the cop's jobs where they belong, on the streets, not on the cutting room floor.

Having gone to war in Iraq and royally ticked off the tea-sippers of Europe, President Bush is not about to wage a full-scale trade war with Europe and Asia over his steel tariffs ... but we all know there will still be casualties.

The World Trade Organization has ruled against Bush's steel tariffs and Europe and Asian countries were all set to impose tariffs of their own on a whole mess of U.S. goods. That would have resulted job losses in the food production and other high trade industries in the U.S. So, if Bush lifts the tariffs, steel makers are expecting to get hit hard by foreign competitors and they will say it could cost hundreds of people their jobs. Still others disagree with that grim forecast and predict the steel industry will survive.

The other side of the equation is a continuation of what's happening now with the steel tariffs in place. Suppliers throughout the U.S. that produce products made from steel are having to pay steep prices for the needed raw material that translates into lower profits and, eventually, layoffs of employees of the supply companies.

Steel: such a simple product, yet so complex.

Like the steel makers, Bush is in a no-win situation. However, Bush will eliminate the tariffs for just one reason, he believes he has some political cover in claiming the WTO made him do it.

WTO or not, steel makers and their families will once again be SOL thus adding to the roles of the unemployed.

Bush has been understandably quiet about the steel tariff issue while making a swing through the upper-Midwest, but he sure isn't quiet about the recent upswing in the economy.

"Things look pretty good, the growth is high," he told employees at a company here that treats steel components for the automakers. "About 286,000 new jobs were created over the last three months, and we need more. I think the foundation is laid."

What Bush fails to mention is that the jobs created are still being washed out by job losses. Deep drops in unemployment are still not happening. A large majority of companies large (Pepsi) and small are either still struggling or unwilling to add to the payroll.

To finish up today's jaunt to our blog is a press release from an organization called The Conference Board on how the slow growing world economy is not (in the words of President Bush) generating jobs for all those who want them.

The $35-trillion world economy is not growing fast enough to provide jobs for millions of people who want them, according to a new analysis by The Conference Board.
Half of the current 2-3 percent average annual economic growth in the global economy is needed to provide employment for the 40 million people flooding the world's job markets each year. But the global economy is not expanding fast enough to absorb the emerging work force. "There is simply not enough growth to go around," says Gail Fosler, Chief Economist of The Conference Board and author of the analysis.

World economic growth rates have slowed sharply since the 1960s, with growth rates falling in not just the U.S. but in Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Only East Asia and South Asia recorded stronger growth during the last decade than in the 1960s. "It is startling," says Fosler, "to think that what was viewed as the boom times of the 1990s was actually the slowest-growing decade in the world economy in the past 40 years."

A TROUBLING JOB OUTLOOK

The Conference Board analysis says the severely underperforming global economy raises widespread economic, political and social questions. Fosler declares: "The world economy is not made up of six or eight or even 20 advanced economies, but a widening pool of ready workers in almost 200 countries, workers who have the same aspirations that workers in the wealthy countries do. At current growth rates, not only are tens of millions of these workers going to remain unemployed, but the ones who get jobs are going to put increasing pressure on living standards in higher-income countries."

Virtually all of the labor force growth is in emerging countries, especially in the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. While labor force growth has slowed slightly in Asia, this region is still posting faster growth than Europe and Japan.

"Among the advanced countries," says Fosler, "only the United States has been able to maintain its labor force growth, although about one half of the new labor force entrants in the U.S. are foreign-born."

The critical questions in a slow-growth world do not revolve around how to distribute economic growth or how to keep some nations from advancing too fast. "The real question is how everyone can advance faster together," notes Fosler. "Unfortunately, the issue of how to achieve higher sustainable world growth is still not being asked."

Don't be mistaken, our economy is quickly morphing into the global economy. As a result, their problems, such as double-digit unemployment, could still someday become our problems.